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List: western_monarchs
Date: Fri, 29 Sep 2017 09:44:06 -0700
From: 'Ron K. Jeffries' <rjeffries...> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...>
Subject: Re: [western_monarchs] How does one get full article

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To Xerces:

Is the full year by year per site data set used by this study available in
spreadsheet format?

I would appreciate a link to the data.


Thanks

Ron K Jeffries

On Sep 29, 2017 8:10 AM, "Francis Villablanca footlooseandfrancisfree@gmail=
.
com [western_monarchs]" <western_monarchs...> wrote:

>
>
> Paul, they came from informal counts. Counts pre-dating the formalized
> WMTC. I am sure you are aware that there were counts happening and that
> they got coordinated and centralized when the WMTC "began." Those counts
> are in the Xerces database. Just to be clear, the authors analytical
> methods (how the numbers are crunched) did consider variation in things
> like the number of sites counted per year and so on.
>
> Best,
> Francis Villablanca
> San Luis Obispo
>
>
> On Sep 28, 2017, at 7:25 PM, Paul Cherubini <monarch...>
> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...> wrote:
>
>
>
> Francis, I cannot figure out where in the paper it explains where
> the 10,000,000 butterflies in 1997 estimate figure came from?
> http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg
> And since there were no formal Thanksgiving Counts prior to
> 1997, where did the 1980=E2=80=99s and early 1990=E2=80=99s count data
> shown in that same graph come from; e.g. the 100,000 butterflies
> estimate for 1994?
> http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg
>
> If readers cannot understand how the authors arrived at their overwinteri=
ng
> population estimate figures for each of the 35 years show in their graph
> then they cannot duplicate what the authors did; i.e. their science canno=
t
> be replicated. And one of the main principles of the scientific method is
> reproducibility.
>
> Paul Cherubini
> El Dorado, Calif.
>
> On Sep 28, 2017, at 5:53 PM, Francis Xavier Villablanca
> <footlooseandfrancisfree...> [western_monarchs] <
> <western_monarchs...> wrote:
>
> Paul,
>
> It is in the first paragraph of the Methods and Materials. Specifically:
> "Our analysis includes 186 sites, with counts from 1981*=E2=80=93*2016 (F=
ig. 1)."
> They also "We filtered the full dataset to include only sites monitored
> at least five years (see Supplement 6)." So, they used WMTC data.
>
>
>=20
>

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<div dir=3D"auto">To Xerces:<div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">I=
s the full year by year per site data set used by this study available in s=
preadsheet format?=C2=A0</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto"=
>I would appreciate a link to the data.<div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=
=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">Thanks</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></d=
iv><div dir=3D"auto">Ron K Jeffries</div></div></div><div class=3D"gmail_ex=
tra"><br><div class=3D"gmail_quote">On Sep 29, 2017 8:10 AM, &quot;Francis =
Villablanca <a href=3D"mailto:<footlooseandfrancisfree...>" target=3D"=
_blank">footlooseandfrancisfree@gmail.<wbr>com</a> [western_monarchs]&quot;=
&lt;<a href=3D"mailto:<western_monarchs...>" target=3D"_blank">=
western_monarchs@yahoogroups.<wbr>com</a>&gt; wrote:<br type=3D"attribution=
"><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:=
1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">


<u></u>









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<span style=3D"display:none">=C2=A0</span>


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<div id=3D"m_-8371934381233335884ygrp-text">
=20=20=20=20=20=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20
<p><div>Paul, they came from informal counts. Counts pre-dating the f=
ormalized WMTC. I am sure you are aware that there were counts happening an=
d that they got coordinated and centralized when the WMTC &quot;began.&quot=
; =C2=A0Those counts are in the Xerces database. Just to be clear, the auth=
ors analytical methods (how the numbers are crunched) did consider variatio=
n in things like the number of sites counted per year and so on.=C2=A0</div=
><div id=3D"m_-8371934381233335884AppleMailSignature"><br></div><div id=3D"=
m_-8371934381233335884AppleMailSignature">Best,</div><div id=3D"m_-83719343=
81233335884AppleMailSignature">Francis Villablanca</div><div id=3D"m_-83719=
34381233335884AppleMailSignature">San Luis Obispo<br><br></div><div><br>On =
Sep 28, 2017, at 7:25 PM, Paul Cherubini <a href=3D"mailto:<monarch...>=
t" target=3D"_blank"><monarch...></a> [western_monarchs] &lt;<a href=
=3D"mailto:<western_monarchs...>" target=3D"_blank">western_mona=
rchs@yahoogroups.<wbr>com</a>&gt; wrote:<br><br></div><blockquote type=3D"c=
ite"><div>












=20

<span>=C2=A0</span>



<div id=3D"m_-8371934381233335884ygrp-text">
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<p>Francis, I cannot figure out where in the paper it explains where<=
/p><div>the 10,000,000 butterflies in 1997 estimate figure came from?=C2=A0=
<div><a href=3D"http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg" tar=
get=3D"_blank">http://imagizer.imageshack.us/<wbr>a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg<=
/a></div><div>And since there were no formal Thanksgiving Counts prior to=
=C2=A0</div><div>1997, where did the 1980=E2=80=99s and early 1990=E2=80=99=
s count data=C2=A0</div><div>shown in that same graph come from; e.g. the 1=
00,000 butterflies</div><div>estimate for 1994?</div><div><a href=3D"http:/=
/imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg" target=3D"_blank">http://=
imagizer.imageshack.us/<wbr>a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg</a></div><div><br></di=
v><div>If readers cannot understand how the authors arrived at their overwi=
ntering</div><div>population estimate figures for each of the 35 years show=
in their graph</div><div>then they cannot duplicate what the authors did; =
i.e. their science cannot=C2=A0</div><div>be replicated. And one of the mai=
n principles of the scientific method is=C2=A0</div><div>reproducibility.</=
div><div><br></div><div>Paul Cherubini</div><div>El Dorado, Calif.</div><di=
v><div><br><div><blockquote type=3D"cite"><div>On Sep 28, 2017, at 5:53 PM,=
Francis Xavier Villablanca <a href=3D"mailto:footlooseandfrancisfree@gmail=
.com" target=3D"_blank">footlooseandfrancisfree@gmail.<wbr>com</a> [western=
_monarchs] &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:<western_monarchs...>" target=
=3D"_blank">western_monarchs@yahoogroups.<wbr>com</a>&gt; wrote:</div><br c=
lass=3D"m_-8371934381233335884Apple-interchange-newline"><div>Paul,<br><div=
dir=3D"ltr" style=3D"font-family:Helvetica;font-size:12px;font-style:norma=
l;font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:s=
tart;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal"><div><br></div=
><div>It is in the first paragraph of the Methods and Materials. Specifical=
ly: &quot;Our analysis includes 186 sites, with counts from 1981<span class=
=3D"m_-8371934381233335884gmail-s1"><b>=E2=80=93</b></span>2016 (Fig. 1).&q=
uot; They also &quot;We<span class=3D"m_-8371934381233335884Apple-converted=
-space">=C2=A0</span><span class=3D"m_-8371934381233335884gmail-s1">fi</spa=
n>ltered the full dataset to include only sites monitored at least<span cla=
ss=3D"m_-8371934381233335884Apple-converted-space">=C2=A0</span><span class=
=3D"m_-8371934381233335884gmail-s1">fi</span>ve years (see Supplement 6).&q=
uot; So, they used WMTC data.</div></div></div></blockquote></div><br></div=
></div></div><p></p>

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