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List: western_monarchs
Date: Fri, 29 Sep 2017 11:57:52 -0700
From: Francis Villablanca <footlooseandfrancisfree...> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...>
Subject: Re: [western_monarchs] How does one get full article

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Ron, I believe there is a link to the western monarch Count.org in the firs=
t paragraph of the method section.

Francis Villablanca
San Luis Obispo.

> On Sep 29, 2017, at 9:44 AM, 'Ron K. Jeffries' <rjeffries...> [weste=
rn_monarchs] <western_monarchs...> wrote:
>=20
> To Xerces:
>=20
> Is the full year by year per site data set used by this study available i=
n spreadsheet format?=20
>=20
> I would appreciate a link to the data.
>=20
>=20
> Thanks
>=20
> Ron K Jeffries
>=20
>> On Sep 29, 2017 8:10 AM, "Francis Villablanca footlooseandfrancisfree@gm=
ail.com [western_monarchs]" <western_monarchs...> wrote:
>>=20=20
>> Paul, they came from informal counts. Counts pre-dating the formalized W=
MTC. I am sure you are aware that there were counts happening and that they=
got coordinated and centralized when the WMTC "began." Those counts are i=
n the Xerces database. Just to be clear, the authors analytical methods (ho=
w the numbers are crunched) did consider variation in things like the numbe=
r of sites counted per year and so on.=20
>>=20
>> Best,
>> Francis Villablanca
>> San Luis Obispo
>>=20
>>=20
>>> On Sep 28, 2017, at 7:25 PM, Paul Cherubini <monarch...> [western_=
monarchs] <western_monarchs...> wrote:
>>>=20
>>>=20=20
>>> Francis, I cannot figure out where in the paper it explains where
>>>=20
>>> the 10,000,000 butterflies in 1997 estimate figure came from?=20
>>> http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg
>>> And since there were no formal Thanksgiving Counts prior to=20
>>> 1997, where did the 1980=E2=80=99s and early 1990=E2=80=99s count data=
=20
>>> shown in that same graph come from; e.g. the 100,000 butterflies
>>> estimate for 1994?
>>> http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg
>>>=20
>>> If readers cannot understand how the authors arrived at their overwinte=
ring
>>> population estimate figures for each of the 35 years show in their grap=
h
>>> then they cannot duplicate what the authors did; i.e. their science can=
not=20
>>> be replicated. And one of the main principles of the scientific method =
is=20
>>> reproducibility.
>>>=20
>>> Paul Cherubini
>>> El Dorado, Calif.
>>>=20
>>>> On Sep 28, 2017, at 5:53 PM, Francis Xavier Villablanca footlooseandfr=
<ancisfree...> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...> w=
rote:
>>>>=20
>>>> Paul,
>>>>=20
>>>> It is in the first paragraph of the Methods and Materials. Specificall=
y: "Our analysis includes 186 sites, with counts from 1981=E2=80=932016 (Fi=
g. 1)." They also "We filtered the full dataset to include only sites monit=
ored at least five years (see Supplement 6)." So, they used WMTC data.
>>>=20
>>=20
>=20
>=20

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<div>Ron, I believe there is a link to the western monarch <a href=3D"http:=
//Count.org">Count.org</a>&nbsp;in the first paragraph of the method sectio=
n.<br><br>Francis Villablanca<div>San Luis Obispo.</div></div><div><br>On S=
ep 29, 2017, at 9:44 AM, 'Ron K. Jeffries' <a href=3D"mailto:rjeffries@gmai=
l.com"><rjeffries...></a> [western_monarchs] &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:wes=
<tern_monarchs...>"><western_monarchs...></a>&gt; wro=
te:<br><br></div><blockquote type=3D"cite"><div>












=20

<span style=3D"display:none">&nbsp;</span>



<div id=3D"ygrp-text">
=20=20=20=20=20=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20
<p></p><div dir=3D"auto">To Xerces:<div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div d=
ir=3D"auto">Is the full year by year per site data set used by this study a=
vailable in spreadsheet format?&nbsp;</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div=
dir=3D"auto">I would appreciate a link to the data.<div dir=3D"auto"><br><=
/div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">Thanks</div><div dir=3D"=
auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">Ron K Jeffries</div></div></div><div clas=
s=3D"gmail_extra"><br><div class=3D"gmail_quote">On Sep 29, 2017 8:10 AM, "=
Francis Villablanca <a href=3D"mailto:<footlooseandfrancisfree...>" ta=
rget=3D"_blank">footlooseandfrancisfree@gmail.<wbr>com</a> [western_monarch=
s]" &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:<western_monarchs...>" target=3D"_blan=
k">western_monarchs@yahoogroups.<wbr>com</a>&gt; wrote:<br type=3D"attribut=
ion"><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"border-left:1px #ccc solid;=
">


<u></u>









=20
<div style=3D"background-color:#fff;">
<span>&nbsp;</span>


<div id=3D"m_-8371934381233335884ygrp-mlmsg">
<div id=3D"m_-8371934381233335884ygrp-msg">


<div id=3D"m_-8371934381233335884ygrp-text">
=20=20=20=20=20=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20
<p></p><div>Paul, they came from informal counts. Counts pre-dating t=
he formalized WMTC. I am sure you are aware that there were counts happenin=
g and that they got coordinated and centralized when the WMTC "began." &nbs=
p;Those counts are in the Xerces database. Just to be clear, the authors an=
alytical methods (how the numbers are crunched) did consider variation in t=
hings like the number of sites counted per year and so on.&nbsp;</div><div =
id=3D"m_-8371934381233335884AppleMailSignature"><br></div><div id=3D"m_-837=
1934381233335884AppleMailSignature">Best,</div><div id=3D"m_-83719343812333=
35884AppleMailSignature">Francis Villablanca</div><div id=3D"m_-83719343812=
33335884AppleMailSignature">San Luis Obispo<br><br></div><div><br>On Sep 28=
, 2017, at 7:25 PM, Paul Cherubini <a href=3D"mailto:<monarch...>" tar=
get=3D"_blank"><monarch...></a> [western_monarchs] &lt;<a href=3D"mail=
to:<western_monarchs...>" target=3D"_blank">western_monarchs@yah=
oogroups.<wbr>com</a>&gt; wrote:<br><br></div><blockquote type=3D"cite"><di=
v>












=20

<span>&nbsp;</span>



<div id=3D"m_-8371934381233335884ygrp-text">
=20=20=20=20=20=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20
<p>Francis, I cannot figure out where in the paper it explains where<=
/p><div>the 10,000,000 butterflies in 1997 estimate figure came from?&nbsp;=
<div><a href=3D"http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg" tar=
get=3D"_blank">http://imagizer.imageshack.us/<wbr>a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg<=
/a></div><div>And since there were no formal Thanksgiving Counts prior to&n=
bsp;</div><div>1997, where did the 1980=E2=80=99s and early 1990=E2=80=99s =
count data&nbsp;</div><div>shown in that same graph come from; e.g. the 100=
,000 butterflies</div><div>estimate for 1994?</div><div><a href=3D"http://i=
magizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg" target=3D"_blank">http://im=
agizer.imageshack.us/<wbr>a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg</a></div><div><br></div>=
<div>If readers cannot understand how the authors arrived at their overwint=
ering</div><div>population estimate figures for each of the 35 years show i=
n their graph</div><div>then they cannot duplicate what the authors did; i.=
e. their science cannot&nbsp;</div><div>be replicated. And one of the main =
principles of the scientific method is&nbsp;</div><div>reproducibility.</di=
v><div><br></div><div>Paul Cherubini</div><div>El Dorado, Calif.</div><div>=
<div><br><div><blockquote type=3D"cite"><div>On Sep 28, 2017, at 5:53 PM, F=
rancis Xavier Villablanca <a href=3D"mailto:<footlooseandfrancisfree...>=
om" target=3D"_blank">footlooseandfrancisfree@gmail.<wbr>com</a> [western_m=
onarchs] &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:<western_monarchs...>" target=3D"=
_blank">western_monarchs@yahoogroups.<wbr>com</a>&gt; wrote:</div><br class=
=3D"m_-8371934381233335884Apple-interchange-newline"><div>Paul,<br><div dir=
=3D"ltr" style=3D"font-family:Helvetica;font-size:12px;font-style:normal;fo=
nt-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start=
;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal;"><div><br></div><d=
iv>It is in the first paragraph of the Methods and Materials. Specifically:=
"Our analysis includes 186 sites, with counts from 1981<span class=3D"m_-8=
371934381233335884gmail-s1"><b>=E2=80=93</b></span>2016 (Fig. 1)." They als=
o "We<span class=3D"m_-8371934381233335884Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</sp=
an><span class=3D"m_-8371934381233335884gmail-s1">fi</span>ltered the full =
dataset to include only sites monitored at least<span class=3D"m_-837193438=
1233335884Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><span class=3D"m_-83719343812=
33335884gmail-s1">fi</span>ve years (see Supplement 6)." So, they used WMTC=
data.</div></div></div></blockquote></div><br></div></div></div><p></p>

</div>
=20=20=20=20=20

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Posted by: Francis Villablanca &lt;<footlooseandfrancisfree...>=
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