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Date: Fri, 29 Sep 2017 17:50:30 -0700
From: Paul Cherubini <monarch...> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...>
Subject: Re: [western_monarchs] How does one get full article
---- ---------------------- -------------------------------------------------- 0.10 BSF_SC0_SA148a URI: Custom Rule SA148a 0.00 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in messageX-Originating-IP: 98.138.100.120X-Original-From: Paul Cherubini <monarch...>From: "Paul Cherubini <monarch...> [western_monarchs]" <western_monarchs...>X-Yahoo-Profile: stelliomatsonSender: <western_monarchs...>: 1.0Mailing-List: list <western_monarchs...>; contact <western_monarchs-owner...>: mailing list <western_monarchs...>: <western_monarchs.yahoogroups.com>Precedence: bulkList-Unsubscribe: <mailto:<western_monarchs-unsubscribe...>Date: Fri, 29 Sep 2017 17:50:30 -0700Subject: Re: [western_monarchs] How does one get full articleReply-To: <western_monarchs...>: groups-email-tradh-m
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Francis, is the Xerces database with the pre-1997 count data available=20
to the public or other researchers? If so, do you know the link to it?

With regard to the 1997-2016 count data, I still cannot figure out=20
where in the paper it explains how the authors arrived at a
10,000,000 overwintering butterflies figure for 1997?=20
http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg <http://imagizer.ima=
geshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg>

The actual 1997 Thanksgiving count was 1,235,490 butterflies:
http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/7058/8eeIIP.jpg <http://imagizer.ima=
geshack.us/a/img924/7058/8eeIIP.jpg>

By contrast, in 2002 the authors graph shows about 100,000=20
overwintering butterflies
http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg <http://imagizer.ima=
geshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg>
which is in agreement with the actual 1997 Thanksgiving count
of 99,353 butterflies:
http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/7058/8eeIIP.jpg <http://imagizer.ima=
geshack.us/a/img924/7058/8eeIIP.jpg>

Paul Cherubini
El Dorado, Calif.

> Paul, they came from informal counts. Counts pre-dating the formalized WM=
TC. I am sure you are aware that there were counts happening and that they =
got coordinated and centralized when the WMTC "began." Those counts are in=
the Xerces database. Just to be clear, the authors analytical methods (how=
the numbers are crunched) did consider variation in things like the number=
of sites counted per year and so on.=20
>=20
> Best,
> Francis Villablanca
> San Luis Obispo
>=20
>=20
> On Sep 28, 2017, at 7:25 PM, Paul Cherubini <monarch...> <mailto:mon=
<arch...> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...> <mailt=
o:<western_monarchs...>> wrote:
>=20
>> Francis, I cannot figure out where in the paper it explains where
>>=20
>> the 10,000,000 butterflies in 1997 estimate figure came from?=20
>> http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg <http://imagizer.=
imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg>
>> And since there were no formal Thanksgiving Counts prior to=20
>> 1997, where did the 1980=E2=80=99s and early 1990=E2=80=99s count data=20
>> shown in that same graph come from; e.g. the 100,000 butterflies
>> estimate for 1994?
>> http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg <http://imagizer.=
imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg>
>>=20
>> If readers cannot understand how the authors arrived at their overwinter=
ing
>> population estimate figures for each of the 35 years show in their graph
>> then they cannot duplicate what the authors did; i.e. their science cann=
ot=20
>> be replicated. And one of the main principles of the scientific method i=
s=20
>> reproducibility.
>>=20
>> Paul Cherubini
>> El Dorado, Calif.
>>=20
>>> On Sep 28, 2017, at 5:53 PM, Francis Xavier Villablanca footlooseandfra=
<ncisfree...> <mailto:<footlooseandfrancisfree...> [western_mona=
rchs] <western_monarchs...> <mailto:western_monarchs@yahoogroup=
s.com>> wrote:
>>>=20
>>> Paul,
>>>=20
>>> It is in the first paragraph of the Methods and Materials. Specifically=
: "Our analysis includes 186 sites, with counts from 1981=E2=80=932016 (Fig=
. 1)." They also "We filtered the full dataset to include only sites monito=
red at least five years (see Supplement 6)." So, they used WMTC data.
>>=20
>>=20
>=20
>=20
>=20


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<div>Francis, is the Xerces database with the pre-1997 count data available=
&nbsp;</div><div><div class=3D"">to the public or other researchers? If so,=
do you know the link to it?</div><div class=3D""><br class=3D""></div><div=
class=3D"">With regard to the 1997-2016 count data, I still cannot figure =
out&nbsp;</div><div class=3D"">where in the paper it explains how the autho=
rs arrived at a</div><div class=3D"">10,000,000 overwintering butterflies f=
igure for 1997?&nbsp;</div><div class=3D""><div class=3D""><a href=3D"http:=
//imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg" class=3D"">http://imagiz=
er.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg</a></div><div class=3D""><br clas=
s=3D""></div><div class=3D"">The actual 1997 Thanksgiving count was 1,235,4=
90 butterflies:</div></div><div class=3D""><a href=3D"http://imagizer.image=
shack.us/a/img924/7058/8eeIIP.jpg" class=3D"">http://imagizer.imageshack.us=
/a/img924/7058/8eeIIP.jpg</a></div><div class=3D""><br class=3D""></div><di=
v class=3D"">By contrast, in 2002 the authors graph shows about 100,000&nbs=
p;</div><div class=3D"">overwintering butterflies</div><div class=3D""><a h=
ref=3D"http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg" class=3D"">h=
ttp://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg</a></div><div class=
=3D"">which is in agreement with the actual 1997 Thanksgiving count</div><d=
iv class=3D"">of 99,353 butterflies:</div><div class=3D""><a href=3D"http:/=
/imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/7058/8eeIIP.jpg" class=3D"">http://imagize=
r.imageshack.us/a/img924/7058/8eeIIP.jpg</a></div><div class=3D""><br class=
=3D""></div><div class=3D"">Paul Cherubini</div><div class=3D"">El Dorado, =
Calif.</div></div><div><br class=3D""><blockquote type=3D"cite" class=3D"">=
Paul, they came from informal counts. Counts pre-dating the formalized WMTC=
. I am sure you are aware that there were counts happening and that they go=
t coordinated and centralized when the WMTC "began." &nbsp;Those counts are=
in the Xerces database. Just to be clear, the authors analytical methods (=
how the numbers are crunched) did consider variation in things like the num=
ber of sites counted per year and so on.&nbsp;<br class=3D""><div style=3D"=
font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: =
normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-al=
ign: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; wi=
dows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" class=3D"">=
<br class=3D""></div><div style=3D"font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px;=
font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spac=
ing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-trans=
form: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-t=
ext-stroke-width: 0px;" class=3D"">Best,</div><div style=3D"font-family: He=
lvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-we=
ight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; tex=
t-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; wor=
d-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" class=3D"">Francis Villabl=
anca</div><div style=3D"font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style=
: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal=
; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none;=
white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-=
width: 0px;" class=3D"">San Luis Obispo<br class=3D""><br class=3D""></div>=
<div style=3D"font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; =
font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans:=
auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-spa=
ce: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px=
;" class=3D""><br class=3D"">On Sep 28, 2017, at 7:25 PM, Paul Cherubini<sp=
an class=3D"Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a href=3D"mailto:monarch@s=
aber.net" class=3D""><monarch...></a><span class=3D"Apple-converted-sp=
ace">&nbsp;</span>[western_monarchs] &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:western_monarchs=
@yahoogroups.com" class=3D""><western_monarchs...></a>&gt; wrote=
:<br class=3D""><br class=3D""></div><blockquote type=3D"cite" style=3D"fon=
t-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: nor=
mal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align=
: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widow=
s: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" class=3D""><di=
v class=3D""><div id=3D"ygrp-text" class=3D""><p style=3D"clear: both; padd=
ing: 15px 0px 3px; overflow: hidden;" class=3D"">Francis, I cannot figure o=
ut where in the paper it explains where</p><div class=3D"">the 10,000,000 b=
utterflies in 1997 estimate figure came from?&nbsp;<div class=3D""><a href=
=3D"http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg" class=3D"">http=
://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg</a></div><div class=3D""=
>And since there were no formal Thanksgiving Counts prior to&nbsp;</div><di=
v class=3D"">1997, where did the 1980=E2=80=99s and early 1990=E2=80=99s co=
unt data&nbsp;</div><div class=3D"">shown in that same graph come from; e.g=
. the 100,000 butterflies</div><div class=3D"">estimate for 1994?</div><div=
class=3D""><a href=3D"http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.j=
pg" class=3D"">http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg</a></=
div><div class=3D""><br class=3D""></div><div class=3D"">If readers cannot =
understand how the authors arrived at their overwintering</div><div class=
=3D"">population estimate figures for each of the 35 years show in their gr=
aph</div><div class=3D"">then they cannot duplicate what the authors did; i=
.e. their science cannot&nbsp;</div><div class=3D"">be replicated. And one =
of the main principles of the scientific method is&nbsp;</div><div class=3D=
"">reproducibility.</div><div class=3D""><br class=3D""></div><div class=3D=
"">Paul Cherubini</div><div class=3D"">El Dorado, Calif.</div><div class=3D=
""><div class=3D""><br class=3D""><div class=3D""><blockquote type=3D"cite"=
class=3D""><div class=3D"">On Sep 28, 2017, at 5:53 PM, Francis Xavier Vil=
lablanca<span class=3D"Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span><a href=3D"mailt=
o:<footlooseandfrancisfree...>" class=3D"">footlooseandfrancisfree@gma=
il.com</a><span class=3D"Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span>[western_monar=
chs] &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:<western_monarchs...>" class=3D"">wes=
<tern_monarchs...></a>&gt; wrote:</div><br class=3D"Apple-interc=
hange-newline"><div class=3D"">Paul,<br class=3D""><div dir=3D"ltr" class=
=3D"" style=3D"font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal;=
font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-al=
ign: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;"><=
div class=3D""><br class=3D""></div><div class=3D"">It is in the first para=
graph of the Methods and Materials. Specifically: "Our analysis includes 18=
6 sites, with counts from 1981<span class=3D"gmail-s1"><b class=3D"">=E2=80=
=93</b></span>2016 (Fig. 1)." They also "We<span class=3D"Apple-converted-s=
pace">&nbsp;</span><span class=3D"gmail-s1">fi</span>ltered the full datase=
t to include only sites monitored at least<span class=3D"Apple-converted-sp=
ace">&nbsp;</span><span class=3D"gmail-s1">fi</span>ve years (see Supplemen=
t 6)." So, they used WMTC data.</div></div></div></blockquote></div><br cla=
ss=3D""></div></div></div><div style=3D"clear: both; padding: 15px 0px 3px;=
overflow: hidden;" class=3D""><br class=3D"webkit-block-placeholder"></div=
></div></div></blockquote><br style=3D"font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 1=
2px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-=
spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-t=
ransform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webk=
it-text-stroke-width: 0px;" class=3D""><br style=3D"font-family: Helvetica;=
font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: no=
rmal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent=
: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacin=
g: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" class=3D""><div width=3D"1" style=
=3D"font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-varia=
nt: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; tex=
t-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal=
; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: w=
hite; clear: both;" class=3D""></div></blockquote></div><br class=3D"">



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