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List: western_monarchs
Date: Sun, 1 Oct 2017 15:02:46 -0700 (PDT)
From: MIA MONROE <muirmia...> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...>
Subject: Re: [western_monarchs] more monarch legends!

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Dennis Frey, Kingston Leong, Stu Weiss., Adrian Wenner...maybe you have som=
e to add? please do! mia

> On October 1, 2017 at 10:36 AM "MIA MONROE <muirmia...> [western_m=
onarchs]" <western_monarchs...> wrote:
>=20
>=20
>=20
>=20
> Thank you, Francis for helping us navigate the Schultz article and do=
cument...must admit that it is way beyond me in terms of methodology but re=
ally appreciate the dialogue it is spurring, the wider attention "out in t=
he big world" it is bringing to the precipitous decline we've all observed =
in the western monarch population.
>=20
>=20
> I write now to first thank all those who've participated in the Weste=
rn Monarch Thanksgiving Count...now in the organizational stages of its 21s=
t year and there's many places for you to contribute to observations/data c=
ollection (noteworthy that the Schultz paper is titled "Citizen Science mon=
itoring..." ) not only during count time but in the expanded opportunities =
of monitoring throughout season (we've added a New Year's count, too!). S=
ome support this work informally ...Paul, i wish to especially single you o=
ut for your invaluable observations, cross-checking and tips on possible bi=
gger trends: you have an amazing lifetime commitment to field work and mem=
ory bank of data (thank you!).
>=20
>=20
> This report also made me walk down memory lane....when i became invol=
ved in David Marriott's Monarch Program, and accompanied Walt Sakai on his =
monitoring trips up and down the coast in the early 1980s, there were count=
s, site specific studies, protection measures underway, entries in to the C=
alifornia Natural Diversity Base, a successful bond measure to protect mona=
rch sites all underway...Robert Michael Pyle, John Dayton, John Lane, Walt =
Sakai, Chris Nagano, Bill Calvert are all legendary figures who have provid=
ed insight through field work, their data is "in the system" and now being =
put to use to extend population trends, monarch behaviour and occupancy res=
ponses...and also available to those currently working towards an understan=
ding of what's ahead for monarchs.
>=20
>=20
> This is just a quick memory snippet and not meant to be inclusive, ju=
st a quick contribution to this current discussion!
>=20
>=20
> Ok...nice autumn day, time to get out and see monarchs on the wing, c=
heck in on a milkweed patch...hope you do too!
>=20
>=20
> mia
>=20
> > > On September 29, 2017 at 5:50 PM "Paul Cherubini mona=
<rch...> [western_monarchs]" <western_monarchs...> wrote:
> >=20
> > Francis, is the Xerces database with the pre-1997 count data av=
ailable=20
> > to the public or other researchers? If so, do you know the link=
to it?
> >=20
> > With regard to the 1997-2016 count data, I still cannot figure =
out=20
> > where in the paper it explains how the authors arrived at a
> > 10,000,000 overwintering butterflies figure for 1997?=20
> > http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg
> >=20
> > The actual 1997 Thanksgiving count was 1,235,490 butterflies:
> > http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/7058/8eeIIP.jpg
> >=20
> > By contrast, in 2002 the authors graph shows about 100,000=20
> > overwintering butterflies
> > http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg
> > which is in agreement with the actual 1997 Thanksgiving count
> > of 99,353 butterflies:
> > http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/7058/8eeIIP.jpg
> >=20
> > Paul Cherubini
> > El Dorado, Calif.
> >=20
> >=20
> > > > > Paul, they came from informal counts. Counts pre-dati=
ng the formalized WMTC. I am sure you are aware that there were counts happ=
ening and that they got coordinated and centralized when the WMTC "began." =
Those counts are in the Xerces database. Just to be clear, the authors ana=
lytical methods (how the numbers are crunched) did consider variation in th=
ings like the number of sites counted per year and so on.=20
> > >=20
> > > Best,
> > > Francis Villablanca
> > > San Luis Obispo
> > >=20
> > >=20
> > > On Sep 28, 2017, at 7:25 PM, Paul Cherubini monarch@saber=
.net mailto:<monarch...> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs@yahoogr=
oups.com mailto:<western_monarchs...> > wrote:
> > >=20
> > >=20
> > > > > > >=20
> > > >=20
> > > > Francis, I cannot figure out where in the paper it =
explains where
> > > > the 10,000,000 butterflies in 1997 estimate figure =
came from?=20
> > > > http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.=
jpg
> > > > And since there were no formal Thanksgiving Counts =
prior to=20
> > > > 1997, where did the 1980=E2=80=99s and early 1990=
=E2=80=99s count data=20
> > > > shown in that same graph come from; e.g. the 100,00=
0 butterflies
> > > > estimate for 1994?
> > > > http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.=
jpg
> > > >=20
> > > > If readers cannot understand how the authors arrive=
d at their overwintering
> > > > population estimate figures for each of the 35 year=
s show in their graph
> > > > then they cannot duplicate what the authors did; i.=
e. their science cannot=20
> > > > be replicated. And one of the main principles of th=
e scientific method is=20
> > > > reproducibility.
> > > >=20
> > > > Paul Cherubini
> > > > El Dorado, Calif.
> > > >=20
> > > >=20
> > > > > > > > > On Sep 28, 2017, =
at 5:53 PM, Francis Xavier Villablanca <footlooseandfrancisfree...> ma=
ilto:<footlooseandfrancisfree...> [western_monarchs] <western_monarch=
<s...> mailto:<western_monarchs...> > wrote:
> > > > >=20
> > > > > Paul,
> > > > >=20
> > > > > It is in the first paragraph of the Methods a=
nd Materials. Specifically: "Our analysis includes 186 sites, with counts f=
rom 1981=E2=80=932016 (Fig. 1)." They also "We filtered the full dataset to=
include only sites monitored at least five years (see Supplement 6)." So, =
they used WMTC data.
> > > > >=20
> > > > > > > > >=20
> > > >=20
> > > >=20
> > > >=20
> > > > > > >=20
> > >=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20
> > >=20
> > > > >=20
> >=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20
> >=20
> > >=20
>=20=20=20=20=20
>=20

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<p>Dennis Frey, Kingston Leong, Stu Weiss., Adrian Wenner...maybe you have some to add?&#160; please do!&#160;&#160; mia<br></p><blockquote type="cite">On October 1, 2017 at 10:36 AM &#34;MIA MONROE <muirmia...> [western_monarchs]&#34; &#60;<western_monarchs...>&#62; wrote:<br><br> <p>Thank you, Francis for helping us navigate the Schultz article and document...must admit that it is way beyond me in terms of methodology but really appreciate the dialogue it is spurring,&#160; the wider attention &#34;out in the big world&#34; it is bringing to the precipitous decline we&#39;ve all observed in the western monarch population.<br></p><p><br></p><p>I write now to first thank all those who&#39;ve participated in the Western Monarch Thanksgiving Count...now in the organizational stages of its 21st year and there&#39;s many places for you to contribute to observations/data collection (noteworthy that the Schultz paper is titled &#34;Citizen Science monitoring...&#34; ) not only during count time but in the expanded opportunities of monitoring throughout season (we&#39;ve added a New Year&#39;s count, too!).&#160;&#160; Some support this work informally ...Paul, i wish to especially single you out for your invaluable observations, cross-checking and tips on possible bigger trends:&#160; you have an amazing lifetime commitment to field work and memory bank of data (thank you!).<br></p><p><br></p><p>This report also made me walk down memory lane....when i became involved in David Marriott&#39;s Monarch Program, and accompanied Walt Sakai on his monitoring trips up and down the coast in the early 1980s, there were counts, site specific studies, protection measures underway, entries in to the California Natural Diversity Base, a successful bond measure to protect monarch sites all underway...Robert Michael Pyle, John Dayton, John Lane, Walt Sakai, Chris Nagano, Bill Calvert are all legendary figures who have provided insight through field work, their data is &#34;in the system&#34; and now being put to use to extend population trends, monarch behaviour and occupancy responses...and also available to those currently working towards an understanding of what&#39;s ahead for monarchs.</p><p><br></p><p>This is just a quick memory snippet and not meant to be inclusive, just a quick contribution to this current discussion!<br></p><p><br></p><p>Ok...nice autumn day, time to get out and see monarchs on the wing, check in on a milkweed patch...hope you do too!<br></p><p><br></p><p>mia<br></p><blockquote type="cite"><div id="ox-46354567fe-ox-7be9d575bd" style="word-wrap: break-word;" class="">On September 29, 2017 at 5:50 PM &#34;Paul Cherubini <monarch...> [western_monarchs]&#34; &#60;<western_monarchs...>&#62; wrote:<br><br><div>Francis, is the Xerces database with the pre-1997 count data available&#160;</div><div><div class="">to the public or other researchers? If so, do you know the link to it?</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">With regard to the 1997-2016 count data, I still cannot figure out&#160;</div><div class="">where in the paper it explains how the authors arrived at a</div><div class="">10,000,000 overwintering butterflies figure for 1997?&#160;</div><div class=""><div class=""><a href="http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg" class="">http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg</a><br></div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">The actual 1997 Thanksgiving count was 1,235,490 butterflies:</div></div><div class=""><a href="http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/7058/8eeIIP.jpg" class="">http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/7058/8eeIIP.jpg</a><br></div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">By contrast, in 2002 the authors graph shows about 100,000&#160;</div><div class="">overwintering butterflies</div><div class=""><a href="http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg" class="">http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg</a><br></div><div class="">which is in agreement with the actual 1997 Thanksgiving count</div><div class="">of 99,353 butterflies:</div><div class=""><a href="http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/7058/8eeIIP.jpg" class="">http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/7058/8eeIIP.jpg</a><br></div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">Paul Cherubini</div><div class="">El Dorado, Calif.</div></div><div><br class=""><blockquote type="cite">Paul, they came from informal counts. Counts pre-dating the formalized WMTC. I am sure you are aware that there were counts happening and that they got coordinated and centralized when the WMTC &#34;began.&#34; &#160;Those counts are in the Xerces database. Just to be clear, the authors analytical methods (how the numbers are crunched) did consider variation in things like the number of sites counted per year and so on.&#160;<br class=""><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;" class=""><br class=""></div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;" class="">Best,</div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;" class="">Francis Villablanca</div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;" class="">San Luis Obispo<br class=""><br class=""></div><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;" class=""><br class="">On Sep 28, 2017, at 7:25 PM, Paul Cherubini<span class="ox-46354567fe-ox-7be9d575bd-Apple-converted-space">&#160;</span><a href="mailto:<monarch...>" class=""><monarch...></a><span class="ox-46354567fe-ox-7be9d575bd-Apple-converted-space">&#160;</span>[western_monarchs] &#60;<a href="mailto:<western_monarchs...>" class=""><western_monarchs...></a>&#62; wrote:<br class=""><br class=""></div><blockquote type="cite"><div class=""><div id="ox-46354567fe-ox-7be9d575bd-ygrp-text" class=""><p style="clear: both; padding: 15px 0px 3px; overflow: hidden;" class="">Francis, I cannot figure out where in the paper it explains where</p><div class="">the 10,000,000 butterflies in 1997 estimate figure came from?&#160;<div class=""><a href="http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg" class="">http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg</a><br></div><div class="">And since there were no formal Thanksgiving Counts prior to&#160;</div><div class="">1997, where did the 1980&#8217;s and early 1990&#8217;s count data&#160;</div><div class="">shown in that same graph come from; e.g. the 100,000 butterflies</div><div class="">estimate for 1994?</div><div class=""><a href="http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg" class="">http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg</a><br></div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">If readers cannot understand how the authors arrived at their overwintering</div><div class="">population estimate figures for each of the 35 years show in their graph</div><div class="">then they cannot duplicate what the authors did; i.e. their science cannot&#160;</div><div class="">be replicated. And one of the main principles of the scientific method is&#160;</div><div class="">reproducibility.</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">Paul Cherubini</div><div class="">El Dorado, Calif.</div><div class=""><div class=""><br class=""><div class=""><blockquote type="cite"><div class="">On Sep 28, 2017, at 5:53 PM, Francis Xavier Villablanca<span class="ox-46354567fe-ox-7be9d575bd-Apple-converted-space">&#160;</span><a href="mailto:<footlooseandfrancisfree...>" class=""><footlooseandfrancisfree...></a><span class="ox-46354567fe-ox-7be9d575bd-Apple-converted-space">&#160;</span>[western_monarchs] &#60;<a href="mailto:<western_monarchs...>" class=""><western_monarchs...></a>&#62; wrote:</div><br class="ox-46354567fe-ox-7be9d575bd-Apple-interchange-newline"><div class="">Paul,<br class=""><div dir="ltr" class="" style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal;"><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">It is in the first paragraph of the Methods and Materials. Specifically: &#34;Our analysis includes 186 sites, with counts from 1981<span class="ox-46354567fe-ox-7be9d575bd-gmail-s1"><strong class="">&#8211;</strong></span>2016 (Fig. 1).&#34; They also &#34;We<span class="ox-46354567fe-ox-7be9d575bd-Apple-converted-space">&#160;</span><span class="ox-46354567fe-ox-7be9d575bd-gmail-s1">fi</span>ltered the full dataset to include only sites monitored at least<span class="ox-46354567fe-ox-7be9d575bd-Apple-converted-space">&#160;</span><span class="ox-46354567fe-ox-7be9d575bd-gmail-s1">fi</span>ve years (see Supplement 6).&#34; So, they used WMTC data.</div></div></div></blockquote></div><br class=""></div></div></div><div style="clear: both; padding: 15px 0px 3px; overflow: hidden;" class=""><br class="ox-46354567fe-ox-7be9d575bd-webkit-block-placeholder"></div></div></div></blockquote><br style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;" class=""><br style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;" class=""><div style="font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; color: white; clear: both;" class="">&#160;<br></div></blockquote></div><br class=""><div style="color: white; clear: both;">&#160;<br></div></div></blockquote><div style="color: white; clear: both;"></div></blockquote>



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