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List: western_monarchs
Date: Mon, 2 Oct 2017 20:42:50 -0700
From: Sarina Jepsen <sarina...> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...>
Subject: Re: [western_monarchs] How does one get full article

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Hello all,

As you've discovered, we currently only have the Thanksgiving Count data
available online, which began in 1997. The pre-1997 data was compiled from
multiple sources, including data collected by Walt Sakai and many other
individuals that Mia mentioned, the observations in the CNDDB database, and
other sources. These data are currently part of a California monarch
overwintering sites database that we maintain. We would be happy to share
the pre-1997 data that was used in this publication, and can send a link
when it is available.

All the best,
Sarina

*Sarina Jepsen*
Director of Endangered Species and Aquatic Programs, The Xerces Society
<http://www.xerces.org/>
Co-Chair, IUCN Bumblebee Specialist Group | bumblebeespecialistgroup.org



Stay in touch: *xerces.org <http://www.xerces.org/>* *blog
<http://www.xerces.org/blog/>* *twitter
<https://twitter.com/xercessociety>* *facebook
<http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Xerces-Society/193182577358618>*
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628 NE Broadway, Ste 200, Portland, OR 97232-1324, USA
Tel: (503) 232-6639 ext. 112; Toll free: 1-855-232 6639 ext. 112; Cell: (97=
1)
244-3727
<sarina.jepsen...>

On Fri, Sep 29, 2017 at 4:52 PM, Francis Xavier Villablanca
<footlooseandfrancisfree...> [western_monarchs] <
<western_monarchs...> wrote:

>
>
> Hi Ron,
>
> All of the references you need to get the data are in the first paragraph
> of the methods section: the info you found, and the references to Pelton.
> Also, Cheryl's info is on the first page. Her University is listed below
> her name and her email is at the bottom of the page (if you follow the
> "*"). No one is hiding anything. Just helps to know where to look ; )
>
> Best, Francis
> San Luis Obispo
>
> On Fri, Sep 29, 2017 at 1:36 PM, 'Ron K. Jeffries' <rjeffries...>
> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>> Amusingly, the link in your email brings up a political site. LOL
>>
>> So I looked at https://www.westernmonarchcount.org/
>>
>> They provide: wmtc-data-1997-2017.pdf obviously a PDF not a format that =
R
>> it a spreadsheet program can use as input.
>>
>> The paper uses non-thanksgiving count data. Transparency requires that
>> all data be available for use by other researchers.
>>
>> Related: I tried to get contact information for lead author of this
>> study, but on my computer nothing came up. Not sure why, but if someone =
has
>> that info and will share it would be great.
>>
>> Ron K Jeffries
>>
>> On Sep 29, 2017 11:58 AM, "Francis Villablanca
>> <footlooseandfrancisfree...> [western_monarchs]" <
>> <western_monarchs...> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Ron, I believe there is a link to the western monarch Count.org in the
>>> first paragraph of the method section.
>>>
>>> Francis Villablanca
>>> San Luis Obispo.
>>>
>>> On Sep 29, 2017, at 9:44 AM, 'Ron K. Jeffries' <rjeffries...>
>>> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...> wrote:
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> To Xerces:
>>>
>>> Is the full year by year per site data set used by this study available
>>> in spreadsheet format?
>>>
>>> I would appreciate a link to the data.
>>>
>>>
>>> Thanks
>>>
>>> Ron K Jeffries
>>>
>>> On Sep 29, 2017 8:10 AM, "Francis Villablanca
>>> <footlooseandfrancisfree...> [western_monarchs]" <
>>> <western_monarchs...> wrote:
>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Paul, they came from informal counts. Counts pre-dating the formalized
>>>> WMTC. I am sure you are aware that there were counts happening and tha=
t
>>>> they got coordinated and centralized when the WMTC "began." Those cou=
nts
>>>> are in the Xerces database. Just to be clear, the authors analytical
>>>> methods (how the numbers are crunched) did consider variation in thing=
s
>>>> like the number of sites counted per year and so on.
>>>>
>>>> Best,
>>>> Francis Villablanca
>>>> San Luis Obispo
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Sep 28, 2017, at 7:25 PM, Paul Cherubini <monarch...>
>>>> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Francis, I cannot figure out where in the paper it explains where
>>>> the 10,000,000 butterflies in 1997 estimate figure came from?
>>>> http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg
>>>> And since there were no formal Thanksgiving Counts prior to
>>>> 1997, where did the 1980=E2=80=99s and early 1990=E2=80=99s count data
>>>> shown in that same graph come from; e.g. the 100,000 butterflies
>>>> estimate for 1994?
>>>> http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg
>>>>
>>>> If readers cannot understand how the authors arrived at their
>>>> overwintering
>>>> population estimate figures for each of the 35 years show in their gra=
ph
>>>> then they cannot duplicate what the authors did; i.e. their science
>>>> cannot
>>>> be replicated. And one of the main principles of the scientific method
>>>> is
>>>> reproducibility.
>>>>
>>>> Paul Cherubini
>>>> El Dorado, Calif.
>>>>
>>>> On Sep 28, 2017, at 5:53 PM, Francis Xavier Villablanca
>>>> <footlooseandfrancisfree...> [western_monarchs] <
>>>> <western_monarchs...> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> Paul,
>>>>
>>>> It is in the first paragraph of the Methods and Materials.
>>>> Specifically: "Our analysis includes 186 sites, with counts from 1981
>>>> *=E2=80=93*2016 (Fig. 1)." They also "We filtered the full dataset to =
include
>>>> only sites monitored at least five years (see Supplement 6)." So, they
>>>> used WMTC data.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>=20
>

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<div dir=3D"ltr">Hello all,=C2=A0<div><br></div><div>As you&#39;ve discover=
ed, we currently only have the Thanksgiving Count data available online, wh=
ich began in 1997. The pre-1997 data was compiled from multiple sources, in=
cluding data collected by Walt Sakai and many other individuals that Mia me=
ntioned, the observations in the CNDDB database, and other sources. These d=
ata are currently part of a California monarch overwintering sites database=
that we maintain. We would be happy to share the pre-1997 data that was us=
ed in this publication, and can send a link when it is available.=C2=A0<br>=
<br></div><div>All the best,<br>Sarina</div></div><div class=3D"gmail_extra=
"><br clear=3D"all"><div><div class=3D"gmail_signature" data-smartmail=3D"g=
mail_signature"><div dir=3D"ltr"><div><div dir=3D"ltr"><div><div dir=3D"ltr=
"><div><div dir=3D"ltr"><div><div dir=3D"ltr"><div dir=3D"ltr"><div dir=3D"=
ltr"><div dir=3D"ltr"><div style=3D"color:rgb(136,136,136);font-size:12.8px=
"><b>Sarina Jepsen</b>=C2=A0<br>Director of Endangered Species and Aquatic =
Programs,=C2=A0<a href=3D"http://www.xerces.org/" style=3D"color:rgb(17,85,=
204)" target=3D"_blank">The Xerces Society</a>=C2=A0<br>Co-Chair, IUCN Bumb=
lebee Specialist Group |=C2=A0<a href=3D"http://bumblebeespecialistgroup.or=
g/" style=3D"color:rgb(17,85,204)" target=3D"_blank">bumblebeespecialistgro=
up.org</a>=C2=A0</div><div style=3D"color:rgb(136,136,136);font-size:12.8px=
"><p style=3D"color:rgb(34,34,34);font-size:12.8px;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt"=
><br></p><p style=3D"color:rgb(34,34,34);font-size:12.8px;margin:0in 0in 0.=
0001pt"><img src=3D"https://docs.google.com/a/xerces.org/uc?id=3D0Bx1WNNjAO=
rmNRHFRbF9EZFZaSnROY1k1ZGE3WUtnN1VRVFo4&amp;export=3Ddownload"><br></p></di=
v><div style=3D"color:rgb(136,136,136);font-size:12.8px"><p><span style=3D"=
font-size:10pt">Stay in touch:=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0</span><b><span=
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7,227)">xerces.org</span></a></span></b>=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=
=A0<b><u><span style=3D"color:rgb(33,174,73)"><a href=3D"http://www.xerces.=
org/blog/" style=3D"color:rgb(17,85,204)" target=3D"_blank"><span style=3D"=
color:rgb(33,174,73)">blog</span></a></span></u></b>=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=
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/b><span style=3D"font-size:10pt"><br>628 NE Broadway, Ste 200, Portland, O=
R 97232-1324, USA<br></span><span style=3D"font-size:10pt">Tel:=C2=A0</span=
><span style=3D"font-size:10pt"><a href=3D"tel:%28503%29%20232-6639%20ext.%=
20112" value=3D"+15032326639" style=3D"color:rgb(17,85,204)" target=3D"_bla=
nk">(503) 232-6639 ext. 112</a></span><span style=3D"font-size:10pt">; Toll=
free:=C2=A0</span><span style=3D"font-size:10pt"><a href=3D"tel:1-855-232%=
206639" value=3D"+18552326639" style=3D"color:rgb(17,85,204)" target=3D"_bl=
ank">1-855-232 6639</a></span><span style=3D"font-size:10pt">=C2=A0ext. 112=
; Cell:=C2=A0<a href=3D"tel:%28971%29%20244-3727" value=3D"+19712443727" st=
yle=3D"color:rgb(17,85,204)" target=3D"_blank">(971) 244-3727</a><br></span=
><span style=3D"font-size:10pt;color:rgb(0,112,192)"><a href=3D"mailto:sari=
<na.jepsen...>" style=3D"color:rgb(17,85,204)" target=3D"_blank"><spa=
n style=3D"color:rgb(0,112,192)"><sarina.jepsen...></span></a>=C2=A0<=
/span><span style=3D"font-size:10pt">=C2=A0</span></p></div></div></div></d=
iv></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div>
<br><div class=3D"gmail_quote">On Fri, Sep 29, 2017 at 4:52 PM, Francis Xav=
ier Villablanca <a href=3D"mailto:<footlooseandfrancisfree...>">footlo=
<oseandfrancisfree...></a> [western_monarchs] <span dir=3D"ltr">&lt;<a=
href=3D"mailto:<western_monarchs...>" target=3D"_blank">western=
<_monarchs...></a>&gt;</span> wrote:<br><blockquote class=3D"gma=
il_quote" style=3D"margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-lef=
t:1ex">


<u></u>









=20
<div style=3D"background-color:#fff">
<span style=3D"display:none">=C2=A0</span>


<div id=3D"m_6545844973160024878ygrp-mlmsg">
<div id=3D"m_6545844973160024878ygrp-msg">


<div id=3D"m_6545844973160024878ygrp-text">
=20=20=20=20=20=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20
<p></p><div dir=3D"ltr">Hi Ron,<div><br></div><div>All of the referen=
ces you need to get the data are in the first paragraph of the methods sect=
ion: the info you found, and the references to Pelton. Also, Cheryl&#39;s i=
nfo is on the first page. Her University is listed below her name and her e=
mail is at the bottom of the page (if you follow the &quot;*&quot;). No one=
is hiding anything. Just helps to know where to look ; )</div><div><br></d=
iv><div>Best, Francis</div><div>San Luis Obispo</div></div><div><div class=
=3D"h5"><div class=3D"gmail_extra"><br><div class=3D"gmail_quote">On Fri, S=
ep 29, 2017 at 1:36 PM, &#39;Ron K. Jeffries&#39; <a href=3D"mailto:rjeffri=
<es...>" target=3D"_blank"><rjeffries...></a> [western_monarchs] =
<span dir=3D"ltr">&lt;<a href=3D"mailto:<western_monarchs...>" t=
arget=3D"_blank">western_monarchs@yahoogroups.<wbr>com</a>&gt;</span> wrote=
:<br><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"border-left:1px #ccc solid"=
>


<u></u>









=20
<div style=3D"background-color:#fff">
<span>=C2=A0</span>


<div id=3D"m_6545844973160024878m_3873065262311681487ygrp-mlmsg">
<div id=3D"m_6545844973160024878m_3873065262311681487ygrp-msg">


<div id=3D"m_6545844973160024878m_3873065262311681487ygrp-text">
=20=20=20=20=20=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20
<p></p><div dir=3D"auto">Amusingly, the link in your email brings up =
a political site. LOL<div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">So I loo=
ked at=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.westernmonarchcount.org/" target=3D"_bla=
nk">https://www.westernmonarchc<wbr>ount.org/</a></div><div dir=3D"auto"><b=
r></div><div dir=3D"auto">They provide: wmtc-data-1997-2017.pdf obviously a=
PDF not a format that R it a spreadsheet program can use as input.</div><d=
iv dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">The paper uses non-thanksgiving=
count data. Transparency requires that all data be available for use by ot=
her researchers.</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">Related=
: I tried to get contact information for lead author of this study, but on =
my computer nothing came up. Not sure why, but if someone has that info and=
will share it would be great.</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D=
"auto">Ron K Jeffries</div></div><div><div class=3D"m_6545844973160024878h5=
"><div class=3D"gmail_extra"><br><div class=3D"gmail_quote">On Sep 29, 2017=
11:58 AM, &quot;Francis Villablanca <a href=3D"mailto:footlooseandfrancisf=
<ree...>" target=3D"_blank">footlooseandfrancisfree@gmail.<wbr>com</a>=
[western_monarchs]&quot; &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:western_monarchs@yahoogroup=
s.com" target=3D"_blank">western_monarchs@yahoogroups.<wbr>com</a>&gt; wrot=
e:<br type=3D"attribution"><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"borde=
r-left:1px #ccc solid">


<u></u>









=20
<div style=3D"background-color:#fff">
<span>=C2=A0</span>


<div id=3D"m_6545844973160024878m_3873065262311681487m_-1137097082731623274=
ygrp-mlmsg">
<div id=3D"m_6545844973160024878m_3873065262311681487m_-11370970827316232=
74ygrp-msg">


<div id=3D"m_6545844973160024878m_3873065262311681487m_-113709708273162=
3274ygrp-text">
=20=20=20=20=20=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20
<p></p><div>Ron, I believe there is a link to the western monarch <a =
href=3D"http://Count.org" target=3D"_blank">Count.org</a>=C2=A0in the first=
paragraph of the method section.<br><br>Francis Villablanca<div>San Luis O=
bispo.</div></div><div><br>On Sep 29, 2017, at 9:44 AM, &#39;Ron K. Jeffrie=
s&#39; <a href=3D"mailto:<rjeffries...>" target=3D"_blank">rjeffries@g=
mail.com</a> [western_monarchs] &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:western_monarchs@yaho=
ogroups.com" target=3D"_blank">western_monarchs@yahoogroups.<wbr>com</a>&gt=
; wrote:<br><br></div><blockquote type=3D"cite"><div>












=20

<span>=C2=A0</span>



<div id=3D"m_6545844973160024878m_3873065262311681487m_-113709708273162=
3274ygrp-text">
=20=20=20=20=20=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20
<p></p><div dir=3D"auto">To Xerces:<div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div d=
ir=3D"auto">Is the full year by year per site data set used by this study a=
vailable in spreadsheet format?=C2=A0</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div=
dir=3D"auto">I would appreciate a link to the data.<div dir=3D"auto"><br><=
/div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">Thanks</div><div dir=3D"=
auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">Ron K Jeffries</div></div></div><div clas=
s=3D"gmail_extra"><br><div class=3D"gmail_quote">On Sep 29, 2017 8:10 AM, &=
quot;Francis Villablanca <a href=3D"mailto:<footlooseandfrancisfree...>=
m" target=3D"_blank">footlooseandfrancisfree@gmail.<wbr>com</a> [western_mo=
narchs]&quot; &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:<western_monarchs...>" targe=
t=3D"_blank">western_monarchs@yahoogroups.<wbr>com</a>&gt; wrote:<br type=
=3D"attribution"><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"border-left:1px=
#ccc solid">


<u></u>









=20
<div style=3D"background-color:#fff">
<span>=C2=A0</span>


<div id=3D"m_6545844973160024878m_3873065262311681487m_-1137097082731623274=
m_-8371934381233335884ygrp-mlmsg">
<div id=3D"m_6545844973160024878m_3873065262311681487m_-11370970827316232=
74m_-8371934381233335884ygrp-msg">


<div id=3D"m_6545844973160024878m_3873065262311681487m_-113709708273162=
3274m_-8371934381233335884ygrp-text">
=20=20=20=20=20=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20
<p></p><div>Paul, they came from informal counts. Counts pre-dating t=
he formalized WMTC. I am sure you are aware that there were counts happenin=
g and that they got coordinated and centralized when the WMTC &quot;began.&=
quot; =C2=A0Those counts are in the Xerces database. Just to be clear, the =
authors analytical methods (how the numbers are crunched) did consider vari=
ation in things like the number of sites counted per year and so on.=C2=A0<=
/div><div id=3D"m_6545844973160024878m_3873065262311681487m_-11370970827316=
23274m_-8371934381233335884AppleMailSignature"><br></div><div id=3D"m_65458=
44973160024878m_3873065262311681487m_-1137097082731623274m_-837193438123333=
5884AppleMailSignature">Best,</div><div id=3D"m_6545844973160024878m_387306=
5262311681487m_-1137097082731623274m_-8371934381233335884AppleMailSignature=
">Francis Villablanca</div><div id=3D"m_6545844973160024878m_38730652623116=
81487m_-1137097082731623274m_-8371934381233335884AppleMailSignature">San Lu=
is Obispo<br><br></div><div><br>On Sep 28, 2017, at 7:25 PM, Paul Cherubini=
<a href=3D"mailto:<monarch...>" target=3D"_blank"><monarch...></=
a> [western_monarchs] &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:<western_monarchs...>=
m" target=3D"_blank">western_monarchs@yahoogroups.<wbr>com</a>&gt; wrote:<b=
r><br></div><blockquote type=3D"cite"><div>












=20

<span>=C2=A0</span>



<div id=3D"m_6545844973160024878m_3873065262311681487m_-113709708273162=
3274m_-8371934381233335884ygrp-text">
=20=20=20=20=20=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20
<p>Francis, I cannot figure out where in the paper it explains where<=
/p><div>the 10,000,000 butterflies in 1997 estimate figure came from?=C2=A0=
<div><a href=3D"http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg" tar=
get=3D"_blank">http://imagizer.imageshack.us/<wbr>a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg<=
/a></div><div>And since there were no formal Thanksgiving Counts prior to=
=C2=A0</div><div>1997, where did the 1980=E2=80=99s and early 1990=E2=80=99=
s count data=C2=A0</div><div>shown in that same graph come from; e.g. the 1=
00,000 butterflies</div><div>estimate for 1994?</div><div><a href=3D"http:/=
/imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg" target=3D"_blank">http://=
imagizer.imageshack.us/<wbr>a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg</a></div><div><br></di=
v><div>If readers cannot understand how the authors arrived at their overwi=
ntering</div><div>population estimate figures for each of the 35 years show=
in their graph</div><div>then they cannot duplicate what the authors did; =
i.e. their science cannot=C2=A0</div><div>be replicated. And one of the mai=
n principles of the scientific method is=C2=A0</div><div>reproducibility.</=
div><div><br></div><div>Paul Cherubini</div><div>El Dorado, Calif.</div><di=
v><div><br><div><blockquote type=3D"cite"><div>On Sep 28, 2017, at 5:53 PM,=
Francis Xavier Villablanca <a href=3D"mailto:footlooseandfrancisfree@gmail=
.com" target=3D"_blank">footlooseandfrancisfree@gmail.<wbr>com</a> [western=
_monarchs] &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:<western_monarchs...>" target=
=3D"_blank">western_monarchs@yahoogroups.<wbr>com</a>&gt; wrote:</div><br c=
lass=3D"m_6545844973160024878m_3873065262311681487m_-1137097082731623274m_-=
8371934381233335884Apple-interchange-newline"><div>Paul,<br><div dir=3D"ltr=
" style=3D"font-family:Helvetica;font-size:12px;font-style:normal;font-vari=
ant:normal;font-weight:normal;letter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-i=
ndent:0px;text-transform:none;white-space:normal"><div><br></div><div>It is=
in the first paragraph of the Methods and Materials. Specifically: &quot;O=
ur analysis includes 186 sites, with counts from 1981<span class=3D"m_65458=
44973160024878m_3873065262311681487m_-1137097082731623274m_-837193438123333=
5884gmail-s1"><b>=E2=80=93</b></span>2016 (Fig. 1).&quot; They also &quot;W=
e<span class=3D"m_6545844973160024878m_3873065262311681487m_-11370970827316=
23274m_-8371934381233335884Apple-converted-space">=C2=A0</span><span class=
=3D"m_6545844973160024878m_3873065262311681487m_-1137097082731623274m_-8371=
934381233335884gmail-s1">fi</span>ltered the full dataset to include only s=
ites monitored at least<span class=3D"m_6545844973160024878m_38730652623116=
81487m_-1137097082731623274m_-8371934381233335884Apple-converted-space">=C2=
=A0</span><span class=3D"m_6545844973160024878m_3873065262311681487m_-11370=
97082731623274m_-8371934381233335884gmail-s1">fi</span>ve years (see Supple=
ment 6).&quot; So, they used WMTC data.</div></div></div></blockquote></div=
><br></div></div></div><p></p>

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