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List: western_monarchs
Date: Tue, 3 Oct 2017 09:40:16 -0700
From: Sarina Jepsen <sarina...> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...>
Subject: Re: [western_monarchs] How does one get full article

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Hello Ron (and all),
Emma Pelton, a conservation biologist at the Xerces Society and coauthor on
this paper, currently manages the western monarch overwintering sites
database. She is out of the office until mid-October, so we won't be able
to share this information for at least a couple of weeks.

All the best,
Sarina

*Sarina Jepsen*
Director of Endangered Species and Aquatic Programs, The Xerces Society
<http://www.xerces.org/>
Co-Chair, IUCN Bumblebee Specialist Group | bumblebeespecialistgroup.org



Stay in touch: *xerces.org <http://www.xerces.org/>* *blog
<http://www.xerces.org/blog/>* *twitter
<https://twitter.com/xercessociety>* *facebook
<http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Xerces-Society/193182577358618>*
*instagram <https://www.instagram.com/xercessociety/>*
628 NE Broadway, Ste 200, Portland, OR 97232-1324, USA
Tel: (503) 232-6639 ext. 112; Toll free: 1-855-232 6639 ext. 112; Cell: (97=
1)
244-3727
<sarina.jepsen...>

On Tue, Oct 3, 2017 at 7:57 AM, 'Ron K. Jeffries' <rjeffries...>
[western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...> wrote:

>
>
> Thank you! When do you expect to have that data available? How was it
> shared with the reseachers?
>
> I apologise for my earlier dumb(!) question about full article, I missed
> fact that it was attached to an early email. Just skimmed too quickly!
>
> Be well
>
> Ron K Jeffries
>
> On Oct 2, 2017 8:42 PM, "Sarina Jepsen <sarina...>
> [western_monarchs]" <western_monarchs...> wrote:
>
>
>
> Hello all,
>
> As you've discovered, we currently only have the Thanksgiving Count data
> available online, which began in 1997. The pre-1997 data was compiled fro=
m
> multiple sources, including data collected by Walt Sakai and many other
> individuals that Mia mentioned, the observations in the CNDDB database, a=
nd
> other sources. These data are currently part of a California monarch
> overwintering sites database that we maintain. We would be happy to share
> the pre-1997 data that was used in this publication, and can send a link
> when it is available.
>
> All the best,
> Sarina
>
> *Sarina Jepsen*
> Director of Endangered Species and Aquatic Programs, The Xerces Society
> <http://www.xerces.org/>
> Co-Chair, IUCN Bumblebee Specialist Group | bumblebeespecialistgroup.org
>
>
>
> Stay in touch: *xerces.org <http://www.xerces.org/>* *blog
> <http://www.xerces.org/blog/>* *twitter
> <https://twitter.com/xercessociety>* *facebook
> <http://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Xerces-Society/193182577358618>*
> *instagram <https://www.instagram.com/xercessociety/>*
> 628 NE Broadway, Ste 200, Portland, OR 97232
> <https://maps.google.com/?q=3D628+NE+Broadway,+Ste+200,+Portland,+OR+9723=
2&entry=3Dgmail&source=3Dg>-1324,
> USA
> Tel: (503) 232-6639 ext. 112; Toll free: 1-855-232 6639 ext. 112; Cell: (=
971)
> 244-3727
> <sarina.jepsen...>
>
> On Fri, Sep 29, 2017 at 4:52 PM, Francis Xavier Villablanca
> <footlooseandfrancisfree...> [western_monarchs] <
> <western_monarchs...> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>> Hi Ron,
>>
>> All of the references you need to get the data are in the first paragrap=
h
>> of the methods section: the info you found, and the references to Pelton=
.
>> Also, Cheryl's info is on the first page. Her University is listed below
>> her name and her email is at the bottom of the page (if you follow the
>> "*"). No one is hiding anything. Just helps to know where to look ; )
>>
>> Best, Francis
>> San Luis Obispo
>>
>> On Fri, Sep 29, 2017 at 1:36 PM, 'Ron K. Jeffries' <rjeffries...>
>> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...> wrote:
>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Amusingly, the link in your email brings up a political site. LOL
>>>
>>> So I looked at https://www.westernmonarchcount.org/
>>>
>>> They provide: wmtc-data-1997-2017.pdf obviously a PDF not a format that
>>> R it a spreadsheet program can use as input.
>>>
>>> The paper uses non-thanksgiving count data. Transparency requires that
>>> all data be available for use by other researchers.
>>>
>>> Related: I tried to get contact information for lead author of this
>>> study, but on my computer nothing came up. Not sure why, but if someone=
has
>>> that info and will share it would be great.
>>>
>>> Ron K Jeffries
>>>
>>> On Sep 29, 2017 11:58 AM, "Francis Villablanca
>>> <footlooseandfrancisfree...> [western_monarchs]" <
>>> <western_monarchs...> wrote:
>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Ron, I believe there is a link to the western monarch Count.org in the
>>>> first paragraph of the method section.
>>>>
>>>> Francis Villablanca
>>>> San Luis Obispo.
>>>>
>>>> On Sep 29, 2017, at 9:44 AM, 'Ron K. Jeffries' <rjeffries...>
>>>> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> To Xerces:
>>>>
>>>> Is the full year by year per site data set used by this study availabl=
e
>>>> in spreadsheet format?
>>>>
>>>> I would appreciate a link to the data.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Thanks
>>>>
>>>> Ron K Jeffries
>>>>
>>>> On Sep 29, 2017 8:10 AM, "Francis Villablanca
>>>> <footlooseandfrancisfree...> [western_monarchs]" <
>>>> <western_monarchs...> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Paul, they came from informal counts. Counts pre-dating the formalize=
d
>>>>> WMTC. I am sure you are aware that there were counts happening and th=
at
>>>>> they got coordinated and centralized when the WMTC "began." Those co=
unts
>>>>> are in the Xerces database. Just to be clear, the authors analytical
>>>>> methods (how the numbers are crunched) did consider variation in thin=
gs
>>>>> like the number of sites counted per year and so on.
>>>>>
>>>>> Best,
>>>>> Francis Villablanca
>>>>> San Luis Obispo
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Sep 28, 2017, at 7:25 PM, Paul Cherubini <monarch...>
>>>>> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Francis, I cannot figure out where in the paper it explains where
>>>>> the 10,000,000 butterflies in 1997 estimate figure came from?
>>>>> http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg
>>>>> And since there were no formal Thanksgiving Counts prior to
>>>>> 1997, where did the 1980=E2=80=99s and early 1990=E2=80=99s count dat=
a
>>>>> shown in that same graph come from; e.g. the 100,000 butterflies
>>>>> estimate for 1994?
>>>>> http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg
>>>>>
>>>>> If readers cannot understand how the authors arrived at their
>>>>> overwintering
>>>>> population estimate figures for each of the 35 years show in their
>>>>> graph
>>>>> then they cannot duplicate what the authors did; i.e. their science
>>>>> cannot
>>>>> be replicated. And one of the main principles of the scientific metho=
d
>>>>> is
>>>>> reproducibility.
>>>>>
>>>>> Paul Cherubini
>>>>> El Dorado, Calif.
>>>>>
>>>>> On Sep 28, 2017, at 5:53 PM, Francis Xavier Villablanca
>>>>> <footlooseandfrancisfree...> [western_monarchs] <
>>>>> <western_monarchs...> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>> Paul,
>>>>>
>>>>> It is in the first paragraph of the Methods and Materials.
>>>>> Specifically: "Our analysis includes 186 sites, with counts from 1981
>>>>> *=E2=80=93*2016 (Fig. 1)." They also "We filtered the full dataset to=
include
>>>>> only sites monitored at least five years (see Supplement 6)." So,
>>>>> they used WMTC data.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>
>
>=20
>

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<div dir=3D"ltr">Hello Ron (and all),=C2=A0<div>Emma Pelton, a conservation=
biologist at the Xerces Society and coauthor on this paper, currently mana=
ges the western monarch overwintering sites database. She is out of the off=
ice until mid-October, so we won&#39;t be able to share this information fo=
r at least a couple of weeks.=C2=A0</div><div><br></div><div>All the best,<=
br>Sarina</div></div><div class=3D"gmail_extra"><br clear=3D"all"><div><div=
class=3D"gmail_signature" data-smartmail=3D"gmail_signature"><div dir=3D"l=
tr"><div><div dir=3D"ltr"><div><div dir=3D"ltr"><div><div dir=3D"ltr"><div>=
<div dir=3D"ltr"><div dir=3D"ltr"><div dir=3D"ltr"><div dir=3D"ltr"><div st=
yle=3D"color:rgb(136,136,136);font-size:12.8px"><b>Sarina Jepsen</b>=C2=A0<=
br>Director of Endangered Species and Aquatic Programs,=C2=A0<a href=3D"htt=
p://www.xerces.org/" style=3D"color:rgb(17,85,204)" target=3D"_blank">The X=
erces Society</a>=C2=A0<br>Co-Chair, IUCN Bumblebee Specialist Group |=C2=
=A0<a href=3D"http://bumblebeespecialistgroup.org/" style=3D"color:rgb(17,8=
5,204)" target=3D"_blank">bumblebeespecialistgroup.org</a>=C2=A0</div><div =
style=3D"color:rgb(136,136,136);font-size:12.8px"><p style=3D"color:rgb(34,=
34,34);font-size:12.8px;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt"><br></p><p style=3D"color:=
rgb(34,34,34);font-size:12.8px;margin:0in 0in 0.0001pt"><img src=3D"https:/=
/docs.google.com/a/xerces.org/uc?id=3D0Bx1WNNjAOrmNRHFRbF9EZFZaSnROY1k1ZGE3=
WUtnN1VRVFo4&amp;export=3Ddownload"><br></p></div><div style=3D"color:rgb(1=
36,136,136);font-size:12.8px"><p><span style=3D"font-size:10pt">Stay in tou=
ch:=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0</span><b><span style=3D"color:rgb(103,207=
,227)"><a href=3D"http://www.xerces.org/" style=3D"color:rgb(17,85,204)" ta=
rget=3D"_blank"><span style=3D"color:rgb(103,207,227)">xerces.org</span></a=
></span></b>=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0<b><u><span style=3D"color:=
rgb(33,174,73)"><a href=3D"http://www.xerces.org/blog/" style=3D"color:rgb(=
17,85,204)" target=3D"_blank"><span style=3D"color:rgb(33,174,73)">blog</sp=
an></a></span></u></b>=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0<b><span style=3D=
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<br>628 NE Broadway, Ste 200, Portland, OR 97232-1324, USA<br></span><span =
style=3D"font-size:10pt">Tel:=C2=A0</span><span style=3D"font-size:10pt"><a=
href=3D"tel:%28503%29%20232-6639%20ext.%20112" value=3D"+15032326639" styl=
e=3D"color:rgb(17,85,204)" target=3D"_blank">(503) 232-6639 ext. 112</a></s=
pan><span style=3D"font-size:10pt">; Toll free:=C2=A0</span><span style=3D"=
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n style=3D"font-size:10pt">=C2=A0ext. 112; Cell:=C2=A0<a href=3D"tel:%28971=
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<arina.jepsen...></span></a>=C2=A0</span><span style=3D"font-size:10p=
t">=C2=A0</span></p></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><=
/div></div></div></div></div></div>
<br><div class=3D"gmail_quote">On Tue, Oct 3, 2017 at 7:57 AM, &#39;Ron K. =
Jeffries&#39; <a href=3D"mailto:<rjeffries...>"><rjeffries...></a=
> [western_monarchs] <span dir=3D"ltr">&lt;<a href=3D"mailto:western_monarc=
<hs...>" target=3D"_blank"><western_monarchs...></a>&=
gt;</span> wrote:<br><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin:0 0 =
0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">


<u></u>









=20
<div style=3D"background-color:#fff">
<span style=3D"display:none">=C2=A0</span>


<div id=3D"m_-7140343503330394920ygrp-mlmsg">
<div id=3D"m_-7140343503330394920ygrp-msg">


<div id=3D"m_-7140343503330394920ygrp-text">
=20=20=20=20=20=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20
<p></p><div dir=3D"auto">Thank you! When do you expect to have that d=
ata available? How was it shared with the reseachers?=C2=A0<div dir=3D"auto=
"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">I apologise for my earlier dumb(!) question a=
bout full article, I missed fact that it was attached to an early email. Ju=
st skimmed too quickly!</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">=
Be well</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">Ron K Jeffries</=
div></div><div><div class=3D"h5"><div class=3D"gmail_extra"><br><div class=
=3D"gmail_quote">On Oct 2, 2017 8:42 PM, &quot;Sarina Jepsen <a href=3D"mai=
lto:<sarina...>" target=3D"_blank"><sarina...></a> [western_mon=
archs]&quot; &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:<western_monarchs...>" target=
=3D"_blank">western_monarchs@yahoogroups.<wbr>com</a>&gt; wrote:<br type=3D=
"attribution"><blockquote class=3D"m_-7140343503330394920quote" style=3D"bo=
rder-left:1px #ccc solid">


<u></u>









=20
<div style=3D"background-color:#fff">
<span>=C2=A0</span>


<div id=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m_-1851564545179813119ygrp-mlmsg">
<div id=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m_-1851564545179813119ygrp-msg">


<div id=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m_-1851564545179813119ygrp-text">
=20=20=20=20=20=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20
<p></p><div dir=3D"ltr">Hello all,=C2=A0<div><br></div><div>As you&#3=
9;ve discovered, we currently only have the Thanksgiving Count data availab=
le online, which began in 1997. The pre-1997 data was compiled from multipl=
e sources, including data collected by Walt Sakai and many other individual=
s that Mia mentioned, the observations in the CNDDB database, and other sou=
rces. These data are currently part of a California monarch overwintering s=
ites database that we maintain. We would be happy to share the pre-1997 dat=
a that was used in this publication, and can send a link when it is availab=
le.=C2=A0<br><br></div><div>All the best,<br>Sarina</div></div><div class=
=3D"gmail_extra"><br clear=3D"all"><div><div class=3D"m_-714034350333039492=
0m_-1851564545179813119gmail_signature" data=3D"https://ci4.googleuserconte=
nt.com/proxy/CpYzkcDKjPf-NqFCSu4GBqoQ_5P1dDkfTMWPGDqglo-e-uanL4gIS02e2U0=3D=
s0-d-e1-ft#http://gmail_signature"><div dir=3D"ltr"><div><div dir=3D"ltr"><=
div><div dir=3D"ltr"><div><div dir=3D"ltr"><div><div dir=3D"ltr"><div dir=
=3D"ltr"><div dir=3D"ltr"><div dir=3D"ltr"><div style=3D"color:rgb(136,136,=
136);font-size:12.8px"><b>Sarina Jepsen</b>=C2=A0<br>Director of Endangered=
Species and Aquatic Programs,=C2=A0<a href=3D"http://www.xerces.org/" styl=
e=3D"color:rgb(17,85,204)" target=3D"_blank">The Xerces Society</a>=C2=A0<b=
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=3D"tel:1-855-232%206639" value=3D"+18552326639" style=3D"color:rgb(17,85,2=
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pt">=C2=A0ext. 112; Cell:=C2=A0<a href=3D"tel:%28971%29%20244-3727" value=
=3D"+19712443727" style=3D"color:rgb(17,85,204)" target=3D"_blank">(971) 24=
4-3727</a><br></span><span style=3D"font-size:10pt;color:rgb(0,112,192)"><a=
href=3D"mailto:<sarina.jepsen...>" style=3D"color:rgb(17,85,204)" ta=
rget=3D"_blank"><span style=3D"color:rgb(0,112,192)"><sarina.jepsen...>=
rg</span></a>=C2=A0</span><span style=3D"font-size:10pt">=C2=A0</span></p><=
/div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></di=
v></div></div><div class=3D"m_-7140343503330394920elided-text">
<br><div class=3D"gmail_quote">On Fri, Sep 29, 2017 at 4:52 PM, Francis Xav=
ier Villablanca <a href=3D"mailto:<footlooseandfrancisfree...>" target=
=3D"_blank">footlooseandfrancisfree@gmail.<wbr>com</a> [western_monarchs] <=
span dir=3D"ltr">&lt;<a href=3D"mailto:<western_monarchs...>" ta=
rget=3D"_blank">western_monarchs@yahoogroups.<wbr>com</a>&gt;</span> wrote:=
<br><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"border-left:1px #ccc solid">


<u></u>









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<div style=3D"background-color:#fff">
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<div id=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m_-1851564545179813119m_654584497316002487=
8ygrp-mlmsg">
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878ygrp-msg">


<div id=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m_-1851564545179813119m_65458449731600=
24878ygrp-text">
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<p></p><div dir=3D"ltr">Hi Ron,<div><br></div><div>All of the referen=
ces you need to get the data are in the first paragraph of the methods sect=
ion: the info you found, and the references to Pelton. Also, Cheryl&#39;s i=
nfo is on the first page. Her University is listed below her name and her e=
mail is at the bottom of the page (if you follow the &quot;*&quot;). No one=
is hiding anything. Just helps to know where to look ; )</div><div><br></d=
iv><div>Best, Francis</div><div>San Luis Obispo</div></div><div><div class=
=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m_-1851564545179813119h5"><div class=3D"gmail_ext=
ra"><br><div class=3D"gmail_quote">On Fri, Sep 29, 2017 at 1:36 PM, &#39;Ro=
n K. Jeffries&#39; <a href=3D"mailto:<rjeffries...>" target=3D"_blank"=
><rjeffries...></a> [western_monarchs] <span dir=3D"ltr">&lt;<a href=
=3D"mailto:<western_monarchs...>" target=3D"_blank">western_mona=
rchs@yahoogroups.<wbr>com</a>&gt;</span> wrote:<br><blockquote class=3D"gma=
il_quote" style=3D"border-left:1px #ccc solid">


<u></u>









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<div style=3D"background-color:#fff">
<span>=C2=A0</span>


<div id=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m_-1851564545179813119m_654584497316002487=
8m_3873065262311681487ygrp-mlmsg">
<div id=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m_-1851564545179813119m_6545844973160024=
878m_3873065262311681487ygrp-msg">


<div id=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m_-1851564545179813119m_65458449731600=
24878m_3873065262311681487ygrp-text">
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<p></p><div dir=3D"auto">Amusingly, the link in your email brings up =
a political site. LOL<div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">So I loo=
ked at=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://www.westernmonarchcount.org/" target=3D"_bla=
nk">https://www.westernmonarchc<wbr>ount.org/</a></div><div dir=3D"auto"><b=
r></div><div dir=3D"auto">They provide: wmtc-data-1997-2017.pdf obviously a=
PDF not a format that R it a spreadsheet program can use as input.</div><d=
iv dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">The paper uses non-thanksgiving=
count data. Transparency requires that all data be available for use by ot=
her researchers.</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">Related=
: I tried to get contact information for lead author of this study, but on =
my computer nothing came up. Not sure why, but if someone has that info and=
will share it would be great.</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D=
"auto">Ron K Jeffries</div></div><div><div class=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m=
_-1851564545179813119m_6545844973160024878h5"><div class=3D"gmail_extra"><b=
r><div class=3D"gmail_quote">On Sep 29, 2017 11:58 AM, &quot;Francis Villab=
lanca <a href=3D"mailto:<footlooseandfrancisfree...>" target=3D"_blank=
">footlooseandfrancisfree@gmail.<wbr>com</a> [western_monarchs]&quot; &lt;<=
a href=3D"mailto:<western_monarchs...>" target=3D"_blank">wester=
n_monarchs@yahoogroups.<wbr>com</a>&gt; wrote:<br type=3D"attribution"><blo=
ckquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"border-left:1px #ccc solid">


<u></u>









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<div style=3D"background-color:#fff">
<span>=C2=A0</span>


<div id=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m_-1851564545179813119m_654584497316002487=
8m_3873065262311681487m_-1137097082731623274ygrp-mlmsg">
<div id=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m_-1851564545179813119m_6545844973160024=
878m_3873065262311681487m_-1137097082731623274ygrp-msg">


<div id=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m_-1851564545179813119m_65458449731600=
24878m_3873065262311681487m_-1137097082731623274ygrp-text">
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<p></p><div>Ron, I believe there is a link to the western monarch <a =
href=3D"http://Count.org" target=3D"_blank">Count.org</a>=C2=A0in the first=
paragraph of the method section.<br><br>Francis Villablanca<div>San Luis O=
bispo.</div></div><div><br>On Sep 29, 2017, at 9:44 AM, &#39;Ron K. Jeffrie=
s&#39; <a href=3D"mailto:<rjeffries...>" target=3D"_blank">rjeffries@g=
mail.com</a> [western_monarchs] &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:western_monarchs@yaho=
ogroups.com" target=3D"_blank">western_monarchs@yahoogroups.<wbr>com</a>&gt=
; wrote:<br><br></div><blockquote type=3D"cite"><div>












=20

<span>=C2=A0</span>



<div id=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m_-1851564545179813119m_65458449731600=
24878m_3873065262311681487m_-1137097082731623274ygrp-text">
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<p></p><div dir=3D"auto">To Xerces:<div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div d=
ir=3D"auto">Is the full year by year per site data set used by this study a=
vailable in spreadsheet format?=C2=A0</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div=
dir=3D"auto">I would appreciate a link to the data.<div dir=3D"auto"><br><=
/div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">Thanks</div><div dir=3D"=
auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">Ron K Jeffries</div></div></div><div clas=
s=3D"gmail_extra"><br><div class=3D"gmail_quote">On Sep 29, 2017 8:10 AM, &=
quot;Francis Villablanca <a href=3D"mailto:<footlooseandfrancisfree...>=
m" target=3D"_blank">footlooseandfrancisfree@gmail.<wbr>com</a> [western_mo=
narchs]&quot; &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:<western_monarchs...>" targe=
t=3D"_blank">western_monarchs@yahoogroups.<wbr>com</a>&gt; wrote:<br type=
=3D"attribution"><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"border-left:1px=
#ccc solid">


<u></u>









=20
<div style=3D"background-color:#fff">
<span>=C2=A0</span>


<div id=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m_-1851564545179813119m_654584497316002487=
8m_3873065262311681487m_-1137097082731623274m_-8371934381233335884ygrp-mlms=
g">
<div id=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m_-1851564545179813119m_6545844973160024=
878m_3873065262311681487m_-1137097082731623274m_-8371934381233335884ygrp-ms=
g">


<div id=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m_-1851564545179813119m_65458449731600=
24878m_3873065262311681487m_-1137097082731623274m_-8371934381233335884ygrp-=
text">
=20=20=20=20=20=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20
<p></p><div>Paul, they came from informal counts. Counts pre-dating t=
he formalized WMTC. I am sure you are aware that there were counts happenin=
g and that they got coordinated and centralized when the WMTC &quot;began.&=
quot; =C2=A0Those counts are in the Xerces database. Just to be clear, the =
authors analytical methods (how the numbers are crunched) did consider vari=
ation in things like the number of sites counted per year and so on.=C2=A0<=
/div><div id=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m_-1851564545179813119m_6545844973160=
024878m_3873065262311681487m_-1137097082731623274m_-8371934381233335884Appl=
eMailSignature"><br></div><div id=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m_-1851564545179=
813119m_6545844973160024878m_3873065262311681487m_-1137097082731623274m_-83=
71934381233335884AppleMailSignature">Best,</div><div id=3D"m_-7140343503330=
394920m_-1851564545179813119m_6545844973160024878m_3873065262311681487m_-11=
37097082731623274m_-8371934381233335884AppleMailSignature">Francis Villabla=
nca</div><div id=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m_-1851564545179813119m_654584497=
3160024878m_3873065262311681487m_-1137097082731623274m_-8371934381233335884=
AppleMailSignature">San Luis Obispo<br><br></div><div><br>On Sep 28, 2017, =
at 7:25 PM, Paul Cherubini <a href=3D"mailto:<monarch...>" target=3D"_=
blank"><monarch...></a> [western_monarchs] &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:weste=
<rn_monarchs...>" target=3D"_blank">western_monarchs@yahoogroups=
.<wbr>com</a>&gt; wrote:<br><br></div><blockquote type=3D"cite"><div>












=20

<span>=C2=A0</span>



<div id=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m_-1851564545179813119m_65458449731600=
24878m_3873065262311681487m_-1137097082731623274m_-8371934381233335884ygrp-=
text">
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=20=20=20=20=20=20
<p>Francis, I cannot figure out where in the paper it explains where<=
/p><div>the 10,000,000 butterflies in 1997 estimate figure came from?=C2=A0=
<div><a href=3D"http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg" tar=
get=3D"_blank">http://imagizer.imageshack.us/<wbr>a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg<=
/a></div><div>And since there were no formal Thanksgiving Counts prior to=
=C2=A0</div><div>1997, where did the 1980=E2=80=99s and early 1990=E2=80=99=
s count data=C2=A0</div><div>shown in that same graph come from; e.g. the 1=
00,000 butterflies</div><div>estimate for 1994?</div><div><a href=3D"http:/=
/imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg" target=3D"_blank">http://=
imagizer.imageshack.us/<wbr>a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg</a></div><div><br></di=
v><div>If readers cannot understand how the authors arrived at their overwi=
ntering</div><div>population estimate figures for each of the 35 years show=
in their graph</div><div>then they cannot duplicate what the authors did; =
i.e. their science cannot=C2=A0</div><div>be replicated. And one of the mai=
n principles of the scientific method is=C2=A0</div><div>reproducibility.</=
div><div><br></div><div>Paul Cherubini</div><div>El Dorado, Calif.</div><di=
v><div><br><div><blockquote type=3D"cite"><div>On Sep 28, 2017, at 5:53 PM,=
Francis Xavier Villablanca <a href=3D"mailto:footlooseandfrancisfree@gmail=
.com" target=3D"_blank">footlooseandfrancisfree@gmail.<wbr>com</a> [western=
_monarchs] &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:<western_monarchs...>" target=
=3D"_blank">western_monarchs@yahoogroups.<wbr>com</a>&gt; wrote:</div><br c=
lass=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m_-1851564545179813119m_6545844973160024878m_=
3873065262311681487m_-1137097082731623274m_-8371934381233335884Apple-interc=
hange-newline"><div>Paul,<br><div dir=3D"ltr" style=3D"font-family:Helvetic=
a;font-size:12px;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;font-weight:normal;l=
etter-spacing:normal;text-align:start;text-indent:0px;text-transform:none;w=
hite-space:normal"><div><br></div><div>It is in the first paragraph of the =
Methods and Materials. Specifically: &quot;Our analysis includes 186 sites,=
with counts from 1981<span class=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m_-1851564545179=
813119m_6545844973160024878m_3873065262311681487m_-1137097082731623274m_-83=
71934381233335884gmail-s1"><b>=E2=80=93</b></span>2016 (Fig. 1).&quot; They=
also &quot;We<span class=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m_-1851564545179813119m_=
6545844973160024878m_3873065262311681487m_-1137097082731623274m_-8371934381=
233335884Apple-converted-space">=C2=A0</span><span class=3D"m_-714034350333=
0394920m_-1851564545179813119m_6545844973160024878m_3873065262311681487m_-1=
137097082731623274m_-8371934381233335884gmail-s1">fi</span>ltered the full =
dataset to include only sites monitored at least<span class=3D"m_-714034350=
3330394920m_-1851564545179813119m_6545844973160024878m_3873065262311681487m=
_-1137097082731623274m_-8371934381233335884Apple-converted-space">=C2=A0</s=
pan><span class=3D"m_-7140343503330394920m_-1851564545179813119m_6545844973=
160024878m_3873065262311681487m_-1137097082731623274m_-8371934381233335884g=
mail-s1">fi</span>ve years (see Supplement 6).&quot; So, they used WMTC dat=
a.</div></div></div></blockquote></div><br></div></div></div><p></p>

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