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List: western_monarchs
Date: Fri, 29 Sep 2017 08:10:32 -0700
From: Francis Villablanca <footlooseandfrancisfree...> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...>
Subject: Re: [western_monarchs] How does one get full article

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Paul, they came from informal counts. Counts pre-dating the formalized WMTC=
. I am sure you are aware that there were counts happening and that they go=
t coordinated and centralized when the WMTC "began." Those counts are in t=
he Xerces database. Just to be clear, the authors analytical methods (how t=
he numbers are crunched) did consider variation in things like the number o=
f sites counted per year and so on.=20

Best,
Francis Villablanca
San Luis Obispo


> On Sep 28, 2017, at 7:25 PM, Paul Cherubini <monarch...> [western_mo=
narchs] <western_monarchs...> wrote:
>=20
> Francis, I cannot figure out where in the paper it explains where
>=20
> the 10,000,000 butterflies in 1997 estimate figure came from?=20
> http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg
> And since there were no formal Thanksgiving Counts prior to=20
> 1997, where did the 1980=E2=80=99s and early 1990=E2=80=99s count data=20
> shown in that same graph come from; e.g. the 100,000 butterflies
> estimate for 1994?
> http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg
>=20
> If readers cannot understand how the authors arrived at their overwinteri=
ng
> population estimate figures for each of the 35 years show in their graph
> then they cannot duplicate what the authors did; i.e. their science canno=
t=20
> be replicated. And one of the main principles of the scientific method is=
=20
> reproducibility.
>=20
> Paul Cherubini
> El Dorado, Calif.
>=20
>> On Sep 28, 2017, at 5:53 PM, Francis Xavier Villablanca footlooseandfran=
<cisfree...> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...> wro=
te:
>>=20
>> Paul,
>>=20
>> It is in the first paragraph of the Methods and Materials. Specifically:=
"Our analysis includes 186 sites, with counts from 1981=E2=80=932016 (Fig.=
1)." They also "We filtered the full dataset to include only sites monitor=
ed at least five years (see Supplement 6)." So, they used WMTC data.
>=20
>=20

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<div>Paul, they came from informal counts. Counts pre-dating the formalized=
WMTC. I am sure you are aware that there were counts happening and that th=
ey got coordinated and centralized when the WMTC "began." &nbsp;Those count=
s are in the Xerces database. Just to be clear, the authors analytical meth=
ods (how the numbers are crunched) did consider variation in things like th=
e number of sites counted per year and so on.&nbsp;</div><div id=3D"AppleMa=
ilSignature"><br></div><div id=3D"AppleMailSignature">Best,</div><div id=3D=
"AppleMailSignature">Francis Villablanca</div><div id=3D"AppleMailSignature=
">San Luis Obispo<br><br></div><div><br>On Sep 28, 2017, at 7:25 PM, Paul C=
herubini <a href=3D"mailto:<monarch...>"><monarch...></a> [wester=
n_monarchs] &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:<western_monarchs...>">western=
<_monarchs...></a>&gt; wrote:<br><br></div><blockquote type=3D"c=
ite"><div>












=20

<span style=3D"display:none">&nbsp;</span>



<div id=3D"ygrp-text">
=20=20=20=20=20=20
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<p>Francis, I cannot figure out where in the paper it explains where<=
/p><div class=3D"">the 10,000,000 butterflies in 1997 estimate figure came =
from?&nbsp;<div class=3D""><a href=3D"http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img92=
4/1042/vyJLUv.jpg" class=3D"">http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img924/1042/v=
yJLUv.jpg</a></div><div class=3D"">And since there were no formal Thanksgiv=
ing Counts prior to&nbsp;</div><div class=3D"">1997, where did the 1980=E2=
=80=99s and early 1990=E2=80=99s count data&nbsp;</div><div class=3D"">show=
n in that same graph come from; e.g. the 100,000 butterflies</div><div clas=
s=3D"">estimate for 1994?</div><div class=3D""><a href=3D"http://imagizer.i=
mageshack.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg" class=3D"">http://imagizer.imageshac=
k.us/a/img924/1042/vyJLUv.jpg</a></div><div class=3D""><br class=3D""></div=
><div class=3D"">If readers cannot understand how the authors arrived at th=
eir overwintering</div><div class=3D"">population estimate figures for each=
of the 35 years show in their graph</div><div class=3D"">then they cannot =
duplicate what the authors did; i.e. their science cannot&nbsp;</div><div c=
lass=3D"">be replicated. And one of the main principles of the scientific m=
ethod is&nbsp;</div><div class=3D"">reproducibility.</div><div class=3D""><=
br class=3D""></div><div class=3D"">Paul Cherubini</div><div class=3D"">El =
Dorado, Calif.</div><div class=3D""><div class=3D""><br class=3D""><div><bl=
ockquote type=3D"cite" class=3D""><div class=3D"">On Sep 28, 2017, at 5:53 =
PM, Francis Xavier Villablanca <a href=3D"mailto:footlooseandfrancisfree@gm=
ail.com" class=3D""><footlooseandfrancisfree...></a> [western_monarchs=
] &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:<western_monarchs...>" class=3D"">wester=
<n_monarchs...></a>&gt; wrote:</div><br class=3D"Apple-interchan=
ge-newline"><div class=3D"">Paul,<br class=3D""><div dir=3D"ltr" style=3D"f=
ont-family: Helvetica;font-size: 12px;font-style: normal;font-variant: norm=
al;font-weight: normal;letter-spacing: normal;text-align: start;text-indent=
: 0px;text-transform: none;white-space: normal;" class=3D""><div class=3D""=
><br class=3D""></div><div class=3D"">It is in the first paragraph of the M=
ethods and Materials. Specifically: "Our analysis includes 186 sites, with =
counts from 1981<span class=3D"gmail-s1"><b class=3D"">=E2=80=93</b></span>=
2016 (Fig. 1)." They also "We<span class=3D"Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</=
span><span class=3D"gmail-s1">fi</span>ltered the full dataset to include o=
nly sites monitored at least<span class=3D"Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</s=
pan><span class=3D"gmail-s1">fi</span>ve years (see Supplement 6)." So, the=
y used WMTC data.</div></div></div></blockquote></div><br class=3D""></div>=
</div></div><p></p>

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Posted by: Francis Villablanca &lt;<footlooseandfrancisfree...>=
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