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Date: Tue, 24 Mar 2020 18:03:21 -0700
From: Paul Cherubini <monarch...> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...>
Subject: =?utf-8?Q?Re=3A_=5Bwestern=5Fmonarchs=5D_What=E2=80=99s_Happening?= =?utf-8?Q?_to_the_=28Western=29_Monarch_Butterfly_Population=3F_=28New_Yo?= =?utf-8?Q?rk_Times=2C_March_20/20=29?=
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Francis:

=E2=80=9CIn regards to "where do they go." Some data have been=20
interpreted as showing that movement is random. I would
caution against accepting that interpretation if there has=20
been no statistical analysis. For example, Nagano at al.=20
1993 show that recaptured tags from overwintering monarchs=20
leaving the coast have [a] pattern [that] is non-random.=20
They conclude that on average the monarch butterflies=20
they tagged moved in a Northwesterly (326*) and in an=20
Easterly (99*) directions. Figure 3 shows that movement=20
is not just in those two directions. There is variation. But=20
the variation is not random.=E2=80=9D

In 1994 UC Santa Barbara professor Adrian Wenner reanalyzed=20
Nagano et al.=E2=80=99s 1993 spring migration dispersal from the coast
tag recapture data and, to quote Dr. Lincoln Brower:
=E2=80=9Cconvincingly argued that the purported bidirectional=20
distribution can not be statistically differentiated=20
from random headings.=E2=80=9D

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/724/Nm5dJT.jpg <https://imagizer.ima=
geshack.com/img924/724/Nm5dJT.jpg>

Paul Cherubini
El Dorado, Calif.
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<div class=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: no=
rmal;"><span class=3D"" style=3D"-webkit-font-kerning: none;">Francis:</spa=
n></div><div class=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-he=
ight: normal; min-height: 18px;"><span class=3D"" style=3D"-webkit-font-ker=
ning: none;"></span><br class=3D""></div><div class=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0=
px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"><span class=3D"" style=3D"-=
webkit-font-kerning: none;">=E2=80=9CIn regards to "where do they go." Some=
data have been&nbsp;</span></div><div class=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0px; fon=
t-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"><span class=3D"" style=3D"-webkit-=
font-kerning: none;">interpreted&nbsp;as showing that movement is random. I=
would</span></div><div class=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0px; font-stretch: norm=
al; line-height: normal;"><span class=3D"" style=3D"-webkit-font-kerning: n=
one;">caution&nbsp;against accepting that interpretation&nbsp;<i class=3D""=
>if there has&nbsp;</i></span></div><div class=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0px; f=
ont-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"><span class=3D"" style=3D"-webki=
t-font-kerning: none;"><i class=3D"">been no statistical analysis</i>. For =
example, Nagano at al.&nbsp;</span></div><div class=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0=
px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"><span class=3D"" style=3D"-=
webkit-font-kerning: none;">1993 show that recaptured tags from overwinteri=
ng monarchs&nbsp;</span></div><div class=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0px; font-st=
retch: normal; line-height: normal;"><span class=3D"" style=3D"-webkit-font=
-kerning: none;">leaving&nbsp;the coast have [a] pattern [that] is non-rand=
om.&nbsp;</span></div><div class=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0px; font-stretch: n=
ormal; line-height: normal;"><span class=3D"" style=3D"-webkit-font-kerning=
: none;">They conclude that&nbsp;<i class=3D"">on average</i>&nbsp;the mona=
rch butterflies&nbsp;</span></div><div class=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0px; fon=
t-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"><span class=3D"" style=3D"-webkit-=
font-kerning: none;">they tagged moved in a Northwesterly (326*) and in an&=
nbsp;</span></div><div class=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0px; font-stretch: norma=
l; line-height: normal;"><span class=3D"" style=3D"-webkit-font-kerning: no=
ne;">Easterly (99*) directions. Figure 3 shows&nbsp;that movement&nbsp;</sp=
an></div><div class=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-h=
eight: normal;"><span class=3D"" style=3D"-webkit-font-kerning: none;">is n=
ot&nbsp;<i class=3D"">just</i>&nbsp;in those two directions. There is varia=
tion. But&nbsp;</span></div><div class=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0px; font-stre=
tch: normal; line-height: normal;"><span class=3D"" style=3D"-webkit-font-k=
erning: none;">the variation is not random.=E2=80=9D</span></div><div class=
=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal; min-=
height: 18px;"><span class=3D"" style=3D"-webkit-font-kerning: none;"></spa=
n><br class=3D""></div><div class=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0px; font-stretch: =
normal; line-height: normal;"><span class=3D"" style=3D"-webkit-font-kernin=
g: none;">In 1994 UC Santa Barbara professor Adrian Wenner reanalyzed&nbsp;=
</span></div><div class=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; li=
ne-height: normal;"><span class=3D"" style=3D"-webkit-font-kerning: none;">=
Nagano et al.=E2=80=99s 1993 spring migration dispersal from the coast</spa=
n></div><div class=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-he=
ight: normal;"><span class=3D"" style=3D"-webkit-font-kerning: none;">tag r=
ecapture data and, to quote Dr.&nbsp;</span>Lincoln Brower:</div><div class=
=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;">=E2=
=80=9Cconvincingly argued that the purported bidirectional&nbsp;</div><div =
class=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;=
">distribution can not be statistically differentiated&nbsp;</div><div clas=
s=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"><s=
pan class=3D"" style=3D"-webkit-font-kerning: none;">from random headings.=
=E2=80=9D</span></div><div class=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0px; font-stretch: n=
ormal; line-height: normal;"><span class=3D"" style=3D"-webkit-font-kerning=
: none;"><br class=3D""></span></div><div class=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0px; =
font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"><span class=3D"" style=3D"-webk=
it-font-kerning: none;"></span><span class=3D"" style=3D"font-stretch: norm=
al; line-height: normal;"><a href=3D"https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924=
/724/Nm5dJT.jpg" class=3D"">https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/724/Nm5d=
JT.jpg</a></span></div><div class=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0px; font-stretch: =
normal; line-height: normal; min-height: 14px;"><br class=3D""></div><div c=
lass=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0px; font-stretch: normal; line-height: normal;"=
>Paul Cherubini</div><div class=3D"" style=3D"margin: 0px; font-stretch: no=
rmal; line-height: normal;">El Dorado, Calif.</div>



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