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Date: Tue, 24 Mar 2020 21:43:01 -0700
From: Francis Xavier Villablanca <footlooseandfrancisfree...> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...>
Subject: =?UTF-8?Q?Re=3A_=5Bwestern=5Fmonarchs=5D_What=E2=80=99s_Happening_to_the_=28We?= =?UTF-8?Q?stern=29_Monarch_Butterfly_Population=3F_=28New_York_Times=2C_March_?= =?UTF-8?Q?20=2F20=29?=

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Hi all,

Paul, your comment is appreciated. In the same volume that Nagano et al.
published their paper arguing for non-random spring remigration dispersal,
Wenner (and Harris) argued that monarchs do not migrate. Clearly, at that
time, there was disagreement. Even if Lincoln was convincingly persuaded,
without seeing Wenner's arguments it is hard to agree or disagree. Though
Lincoln cites Wenner 1994, this was only personal correspondence. There is
no evidence of what the "reanalysis" was and therefore it is impossible to
know if it was or was not valid. This is important because in general
accepting a hypothesis of randomness (as Wenner would have done) is quite
difficult. For example, one could fail to see a pattern simply due to a
lack of sufficient data, or due to using a statistical method that lacks
power to resolve that pattern. In contrast rejecting randomness is quite
convincing. That is a fundamental premise of statistical testing. So
without Wenner's work to evaluate the best we have is Nagano et al's
conclusion.

Just wanted to set the record straight.

Be well, Francis Villablanca
San Luis Obispo

On Tue, Mar 24, 2020 at 6:04 PM Paul Cherubini <monarch...>
[western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...> wrote:

>
>
> Francis:
>
> =E2=80=9CIn regards to "where do they go." Some data have been
> interpreted as showing that movement is random. I would
> caution against accepting that interpretation *if there has *
> *been no statistical analysis*. For example, Nagano at al.
> 1993 show that recaptured tags from overwintering monarchs
> leaving the coast have [a] pattern [that] is non-random.
> They conclude that *on average* the monarch butterflies
> they tagged moved in a Northwesterly (326*) and in an
> Easterly (99*) directions. Figure 3 shows that movement
> is not *just* in those two directions. There is variation. But
> the variation is not random.=E2=80=9D
>
> In 1994 UC Santa Barbara professor Adrian Wenner reanalyzed
> Nagano et al.=E2=80=99s 1993 spring migration dispersal from the coast
> tag recapture data and, to quote Dr. Lincoln Brower:
> =E2=80=9Cconvincingly argued that the purported bidirectional
> distribution can not be statistically differentiated
> from random headings.=E2=80=9D
>
> https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/724/Nm5dJT.jpg
>
> Paul Cherubini
> El Dorado, Calif.
>
>=20
>

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<div dir=3D"ltr">Hi all,<div><br></div><div>Paul, your comment is appreciat=
ed. In the same volume=C2=A0that Nagano et al. published their paper arguin=
g for non-random spring remigration dispersal, Wenner (and Harris) argued t=
hat monarchs do not migrate. Clearly, at that time, there was disagreement.=
Even if Lincoln was convincingly persuaded, without seeing Wenner&#39;s ar=
guments it is hard to agree or disagree. Though Lincoln cites Wenner 1994, =
this was only personal correspondence. There is no evidence of what the &qu=
ot;reanalysis&quot; was and therefore it is impossible to know if it was or=
was not valid. This is important because in general accepting a hypothesis=
of randomness (as Wenner would have done) is quite difficult. For example,=
one could fail to see a pattern simply due to a lack of sufficient data, o=
r due to using a statistical method that lacks power to resolve that patter=
n. In contrast rejecting randomness is quite convincing. That is a fundamen=
tal premise of statistical testing. So without Wenner&#39;s work to evaluat=
e the best we=C2=A0have is Nagano et al&#39;s conclusion.</div><div><br></d=
iv><div>Just wanted to set the record straight.</div><div><br></div><div>Be=
well, Francis Villablanca</div><div>San Luis Obispo=C2=A0</div></div><br><=
div class=3D"gmail_quote"><div dir=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr">On Tue, Mar=
24, 2020 at 6:04 PM Paul Cherubini <a href=3D"mailto:<monarch...>">mo=
<narch...></a> [western_monarchs] &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:western_monarc=
<hs...>"><western_monarchs...></a>&gt; wrote:<br></di=
v><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;borde=
r-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">


<u></u>









=20
<div style=3D"background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">
<span style=3D"display:none">=C2=A0</span>


<div id=3D"gmail-m_-6286414984028035807ygrp-mlmsg">
<div id=3D"gmail-m_-6286414984028035807ygrp-msg">


<div id=3D"gmail-m_-6286414984028035807ygrp-text">
=20=20=20=20=20=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20
<p></p><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>Francis:</=
span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal;min-height:18px"><s=
pan></span><br></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>=
=E2=80=9CIn regards to &quot;where do they go.&quot; Some data have been=C2=
=A0</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>interpr=
eted=C2=A0as showing that movement is random. I would</span></div><div styl=
e=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>caution=C2=A0against accepting t=
hat interpretation=C2=A0<i>if there has=C2=A0</i></span></div><div style=3D=
"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span><i>been no statistical analysis</i>.=
For example, Nagano at al.=C2=A0</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font=
-stretch:normal"><span>1993 show that recaptured tags from overwintering mo=
narchs=C2=A0</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><spa=
n>leaving=C2=A0the coast have [a] pattern [that] is non-random.=C2=A0</span=
></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>They conclude th=
at=C2=A0<i>on average</i>=C2=A0the monarch butterflies=C2=A0</span></div><d=
iv style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>they tagged moved in a No=
rthwesterly (326*) and in an=C2=A0</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;fon=
t-stretch:normal"><span>Easterly (99*) directions. Figure 3 shows=C2=A0that=
movement=C2=A0</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><=
span>is not=C2=A0<i>just</i>=C2=A0in those two directions. There is variati=
on. But=C2=A0</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><sp=
an>the variation is not random.=E2=80=9D</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0=
px;font-stretch:normal;min-height:18px"><span></span><br></div><div style=
=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>In 1994 UC Santa Barbara professo=
r Adrian Wenner reanalyzed=C2=A0</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-=
stretch:normal"><span>Nagano et al.=E2=80=99s 1993 spring migration dispers=
al from the coast</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"=
><span>tag recapture data and, to quote Dr.=C2=A0</span>Lincoln Brower:</di=
v><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal">=E2=80=9Cconvincingly argue=
d that the purported bidirectional=C2=A0</div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font=
-stretch:normal">distribution can not be statistically differentiated=C2=A0=
</div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>from random headi=
ngs.=E2=80=9D</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><sp=
an><br></span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span></s=
pan><span style=3D"font-stretch:normal"><a href=3D"https://imagizer.imagesh=
ack.com/img924/724/Nm5dJT.jpg" target=3D"_blank">https://imagizer.imageshac=
k.com/img924/724/Nm5dJT.jpg</a></span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-s=
tretch:normal;min-height:14px"><br></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stre=
tch:normal">Paul Cherubini</div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:norma=
l">El Dorado, Calif.</div><p></p>

</div>
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Posted by: Francis Xavier Villablanca &lt;footlooseandfrancisfree@=
gmail.com&gt; <hr style=3D"height:2px ; border-width:0; color:#E3E3=
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