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Date: Tue, 24 Mar 2020 23:45:31 -0700
From: Paul Cherubini <monarch...> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...>
Subject: =?utf-8?Q?Re=3A_=5Bwestern=5Fmonarchs=5D_What=E2=80=99s_Happening?= =?utf-8?Q?_to_the_=28Western=29_Monarch_Butterfly_Population=3F_=28New_Yo?= =?utf-8?Q?rk_Times=2C_March_20/20=29?=
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Francis: "Even if Lincoln was convincingly persuaded, without seeing
Wenner's arguments it is hard to agree or disagree.=E2=80=9D

In addition to Lincoln, another co-author of Nagano et al 1993 paper
- Prof. Myron Zalucki - was similar pursuaded by Wenner=E2=80=99s statistic=
al=20
reanalysis as well as UC Davis entomology professor Hugh Dingle who
specializes in insect behavior.

Evidence: In this 2005 paper=20
https://academic.oup.com/biolinnean/article/85/4/491/2691594 <https://acade=
mic.oup.com/biolinnean/article/85/4/491/2691594>

Dingle & Zalucki wrote:=20

"Tagging experiments showed that other monarchs from the winter=20
aggregations moved during a brief period in the spring up to 465 km=20
inland from the tagging sites (Nagano=C2=A0et=C2=A0 <>al., 1993 <>).=20

The pattern of recaptures suggested that butterflies tagged=20
in the Los Angeles Basin moved due east, those tagged in Santa Barbara=20
County moved east or north-east, while those tagged north of Santa=20
Barbara moved north-east, although differences between directions=20
were not statistically significant (Wenner in Brower, 1995 <>).=20

The apparent divide between butterflies from Los Angeles and those=20
from farther north was imposed by the Mojave Desert."

Paul Cherubini
El Dorado, Calif.
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<div class=3D""><span class=3D"" style=3D"caret-color: rgb(42, 42, 42); col=
or: rgb(42, 42, 42); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">Francis: "</spa=
n>Even if Lincoln was convincingly persuaded, without seeing</div><div clas=
s=3D"">Wenner's arguments it is hard to agree or disagree.=E2=80=9D</div><d=
iv class=3D""><br class=3D""></div><div class=3D"">In addition to Lincoln, =
another co-author of Nagano et al 1993 paper</div><div class=3D"">- Prof. M=
yron Zalucki - was similar pursuaded by Wenner=E2=80=99s statistical&nbsp;<=
/div><div class=3D"">reanalysis as well as UC Davis entomology professor Hu=
gh Dingle who</div><div class=3D"">specializes in insect behavior.</div><di=
v class=3D""><br class=3D""></div><div class=3D"">Evidence: In this 2005 pa=
per&nbsp;</div><div class=3D""><a href=3D"https://academic.oup.com/biolinne=
an/article/85/4/491/2691594" class=3D"">https://academic.oup.com/biolinnean=
/article/85/4/491/2691594</a></div><div class=3D""><br class=3D""></div><di=
v class=3D"">Dingle &amp; Zalucki wrote:&nbsp;</div><div class=3D""><br cla=
ss=3D""></div><div class=3D"">"<span class=3D"" style=3D"caret-color: rgb(4=
2, 42, 42); color: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-size: 0.9375rem;">Tagging experime=
nts showed that other&nbsp;</span><span class=3D"" style=3D"caret-color: rg=
b(42, 42, 42); color: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-size: 0.9375rem;">monarchs from=
the winter&nbsp;</span></div><div class=3D""><span class=3D"" style=3D"car=
et-color: rgb(42, 42, 42); color: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-size: 0.9375rem;">a=
ggregations moved during a brief period&nbsp;</span><span class=3D"" style=
=3D"caret-color: rgb(42, 42, 42); color: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-size: 0.9375=
rem;">in the spring up to 465 km&nbsp;</span></div><div class=3D""><span cl=
ass=3D"" style=3D"caret-color: rgb(42, 42, 42); color: rgb(42, 42, 42); fon=
t-size: 0.9375rem;">inland from the tagging sites (</span><a reveal-id=3D"b=
14" data-open=3D"b14" class=3D"xref-bibr link-ref link-reveal link" style=
=3D"caret-color: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-size: inherit; box-sizing: border-bo=
x; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-varian=
t-caps: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-alig=
n: baseline; color: rgb(0, 111, 183); overflow-wrap: break-word; word-wrap:=
break-word; word-break: break-word; -webkit-hyphens: auto;">Nagano&nbsp;<s=
pan class=3D"" style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; =
border: 0px; font-size: inherit; font-style: italic; font-variant-caps: inh=
erit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline=
;">et&nbsp;</span></a><a reveal-id=3D"b14" data-open=3D"b14" class=3D"xref-=
bibr link-ref link-reveal link" style=3D"caret-color: rgb(42, 42, 42); font=
-size: inherit; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: =
0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-stretch: inherit=
; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, 111, 183); =
overflow-wrap: break-word; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: break-word; -=
webkit-hyphens: auto;"><span class=3D"" style=3D"box-sizing: border-box; ma=
rgin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: inherit; font-style: itali=
c; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit;=
vertical-align: baseline;">al</span>., 1993</a><span class=3D"" style=3D"c=
aret-color: rgb(42, 42, 42); color: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-size: 0.9375rem;"=
>).&nbsp;</span></div><div class=3D""><span class=3D"" style=3D"caret-color=
: rgb(42, 42, 42); color: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-size: 0.9375rem;"><br class=
=3D""></span></div><div class=3D""><span class=3D"" style=3D"caret-color: r=
gb(42, 42, 42); color: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-size: 0.9375rem;">The pattern =
of&nbsp;</span><span class=3D"" style=3D"caret-color: rgb(42, 42, 42); colo=
r: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-size: 0.9375rem;">recaptures suggested that butter=
flies tagged&nbsp;</span></div><div class=3D""><span class=3D"" style=3D"ca=
ret-color: rgb(42, 42, 42); color: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-size: 0.9375rem;">=
in the Los Angeles Basin moved due east, those tagged in Santa Barbara&nbsp=
;</span></div><div class=3D""><span class=3D"" style=3D"caret-color: rgb(42=
, 42, 42); color: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-size: 0.9375rem;">County moved east=
or north-east, while those tagged north of Santa&nbsp;</span></div><div cl=
ass=3D""><span class=3D"" style=3D"caret-color: rgb(42, 42, 42); color: rgb=
(42, 42, 42); font-size: 0.9375rem;">Barbara moved north-east, although dif=
ferences between directions&nbsp;</span></div><div class=3D""><span class=
=3D"" style=3D"caret-color: rgb(42, 42, 42); color: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-s=
ize: 0.9375rem;">were not statistically significant (Wenner in</span><span =
class=3D"" style=3D"caret-color: rgb(42, 42, 42); color: rgb(42, 42, 42); f=
ont-size: 0.9375rem;">&nbsp;</span><a reveal-id=3D"b3" data-open=3D"b3" cla=
ss=3D"xref-bibr link-ref link-reveal link" style=3D"caret-color: rgb(42, 42=
, 42); font-size: inherit; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0p=
x; border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant-caps: inherit; font-stret=
ch: inherit; line-height: inherit; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(0, =
111, 183); overflow-wrap: break-word; word-wrap: break-word; word-break: br=
eak-word; -webkit-hyphens: auto;">Brower, 1995</a><span class=3D"" style=3D=
"caret-color: rgb(42, 42, 42); color: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-size: 0.9375rem=
;">).&nbsp;</span></div><div class=3D""><span class=3D"" style=3D"caret-col=
or: rgb(42, 42, 42); color: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-size: 0.9375rem;"><br cla=
ss=3D""></span></div><div class=3D""><span class=3D"" style=3D"caret-color:=
rgb(42, 42, 42); color: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-size: 0.9375rem;">The&nbsp;<=
/span><span class=3D"" style=3D"caret-color: rgb(42, 42, 42); color: rgb(42=
, 42, 42); font-size: 0.9375rem;">apparent divide between butterflies from =
Los Angeles and those&nbsp;</span></div><div class=3D""><span class=3D"" st=
yle=3D"caret-color: rgb(42, 42, 42); color: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-size: 0.9=
375rem;">from farther north was imposed by the Mojave Desert."</span></div>=
<div class=3D""><span class=3D"" style=3D"caret-color: rgb(42, 42, 42); col=
or: rgb(42, 42, 42); font-size: 0.9375rem;"><br class=3D""></span></div><sp=
an class=3D"" style=3D"caret-color: rgb(42, 42, 42); color: rgb(42, 42, 42)=
; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><div class=3D"">Paul Cherubini</di=
v><div class=3D"">El Dorado, Calif.</div></span>



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