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Date: Wed, 25 Mar 2020 07:55:59 -0700
From: Home <muirmia...> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...>
Subject: =?utf-8?Q?Re:_[western=5Fmonarchs]_What=E2=80=99s_Happening_to_the?= =?utf-8?Q?_=28Western=29_Monarch_Butterfly_Population=3F_=28New_York_Tim?= =?utf-8?Q?es,_March_20/20=29?=

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This kind of discussion is this group at its best! Thank you! Mia=20

Sent from my iPhone

> On Mar 24, 2020, at 9:43 PM, Francis Xavier Villablanca footlooseandfranc=
<isfree...> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...> wrot=
e:
>=20
> =EF=BB=BF=20
>=20
> Hi all,
>=20
> Paul, your comment is appreciated. In the same volume that Nagano et al. =
published their paper arguing for non-random spring remigration dispersal, =
Wenner (and Harris) argued that monarchs do not migrate. Clearly, at that t=
ime, there was disagreement. Even if Lincoln was convincingly persuaded, wi=
thout seeing Wenner's arguments it is hard to agree or disagree. Though Lin=
coln cites Wenner 1994, this was only personal correspondence. There is no =
evidence of what the "reanalysis" was and therefore it is impossible to kno=
w if it was or was not valid. This is important because in general acceptin=
g a hypothesis of randomness (as Wenner would have done) is quite difficult=
.. For example, one could fail to see a pattern simply due to a lack of suff=
icient data, or due to using a statistical method that lacks power to resol=
ve that pattern. In contrast rejecting randomness is quite convincing. That=
is a fundamental premise of statistical testing. So without Wenner's work =
to evaluate the best we have is Nagano et al's conclusion.
>=20
> Just wanted to set the record straight.
>=20
> Be well, Francis Villablanca
> San Luis Obispo=20
>=20
>> On Tue, Mar 24, 2020 at 6:04 PM Paul Cherubini <monarch...> [wester=
n_monarchs] <western_monarchs...> wrote:
>> Francis:
>>=20
>> =E2=80=9CIn regards to "where do they go." Some data have been=20
>> interpreted as showing that movement is random. I would
>> caution against accepting that interpretation if there has=20
>> been no statistical analysis. For example, Nagano at al.=20
>> 1993 show that recaptured tags from overwintering monarchs=20
>> leaving the coast have [a] pattern [that] is non-random.=20
>> They conclude that on average the monarch butterflies=20
>> they tagged moved in a Northwesterly (326*) and in an=20
>> Easterly (99*) directions. Figure 3 shows that movement=20
>> is not just in those two directions. There is variation. But=20
>> the variation is not random.=E2=80=9D
>>=20
>> In 1994 UC Santa Barbara professor Adrian Wenner reanalyzed=20
>> Nagano et al.=E2=80=99s 1993 spring migration dispersal from the coast
>> tag recapture data and, to quote Dr. Lincoln Brower:
>> =E2=80=9Cconvincingly argued that the purported bidirectional=20
>> distribution can not be statistically differentiated=20
>> from random headings.=E2=80=9D
>>=20
>> https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/724/Nm5dJT.jpg
>>=20
>> Paul Cherubini
>> El Dorado, Calif.
>=20
>=20
>=20

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This kind of discussion is this group at its best! &nbsp;Thank you! &nbsp;M=
ia&nbsp;<br><br><div dir=3D"ltr">Sent from my iPhone</div><div dir=3D"ltr">=
<br><blockquote type=3D"cite">On Mar 24, 2020, at 9:43 PM, Francis Xavier V=
illablanca <footlooseandfrancisfree...> [western_monarchs] &lt;western=
<_monarchs...>&gt; wrote:<br><br></blockquote></div><blockquote =
type=3D"cite"><div dir=3D"ltr">=EF=BB=BF






=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20











<div dir=3D"ltr">Hi all,<div><br></div><div>Paul, your comment is appreciat=
ed. In the same volume&nbsp;that Nagano et al. published their paper arguin=
g for non-random spring remigration dispersal, Wenner (and Harris) argued t=
hat monarchs do not migrate. Clearly, at that time, there was disagreement.=
Even if Lincoln was convincingly persuaded, without seeing Wenner's argume=
nts it is hard to agree or disagree. Though Lincoln cites Wenner 1994, this=
was only personal correspondence. There is no evidence of what the "reanal=
ysis" was and therefore it is impossible to know if it was or was not valid=
.. This is important because in general accepting a hypothesis of randomness=
(as Wenner would have done) is quite difficult. For example, one could fai=
l to see a pattern simply due to a lack of sufficient data, or due to using=
a statistical method that lacks power to resolve that pattern. In contrast=
rejecting randomness is quite convincing. That is a fundamental premise of=
statistical testing. So without Wenner's work to evaluate the best we&nbsp=
;have is Nagano et al's conclusion.</div><div><br></div><div>Just wanted to=
set the record straight.</div><div><br></div><div>Be well, Francis Villabl=
anca</div><div>San Luis Obispo&nbsp;</div></div><br><div class=3D"gmail_quo=
te"><div dir=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr">On Tue, Mar 24, 2020 at 6:04 PM P=
aul Cherubini <a href=3D"mailto:<monarch...>"><monarch...></a> [w=
estern_monarchs] &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:<western_monarchs...>">we=
<stern_monarchs...></a>&gt; wrote:<br></div><blockquote class=3D=
"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(2=
04,204,204);padding-left:1ex">


<u></u>









=20
<div style=3D"background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">
<span style=3D"display:none">&nbsp;</span>


<div id=3D"gmail-m_-6286414984028035807ygrp-mlmsg">
<div id=3D"gmail-m_-6286414984028035807ygrp-msg">


<div id=3D"gmail-m_-6286414984028035807ygrp-text">
=20=20=20=20=20=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20
<p></p><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>Francis:</=
span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal;min-height:18px"><s=
pan></span><br></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>=
=E2=80=9CIn regards to "where do they go." Some data have been&nbsp;</span>=
</div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>interpreted&nbsp;=
as showing that movement is random. I would</span></div><div style=3D"margi=
n:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>caution&nbsp;against accepting that interp=
retation&nbsp;<i>if there has&nbsp;</i></span></div><div style=3D"margin:0p=
x;font-stretch:normal"><span><i>been no statistical analysis</i>. For examp=
le, Nagano at al.&nbsp;</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:n=
ormal"><span>1993 show that recaptured tags from overwintering monarchs&nbs=
p;</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>leaving&=
nbsp;the coast have [a] pattern [that] is non-random.&nbsp;</span></div><di=
v style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>They conclude that&nbsp;<i=
>on average</i>&nbsp;the monarch butterflies&nbsp;</span></div><div style=
=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>they tagged moved in a Northweste=
rly (326*) and in an&nbsp;</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretc=
h:normal"><span>Easterly (99*) directions. Figure 3 shows&nbsp;that movemen=
t&nbsp;</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>is =
not&nbsp;<i>just</i>&nbsp;in those two directions. There is variation. But&=
nbsp;</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>the v=
ariation is not random.=E2=80=9D</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-=
stretch:normal;min-height:18px"><span></span><br></div><div style=3D"margin=
:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>In 1994 UC Santa Barbara professor Adrian W=
enner reanalyzed&nbsp;</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:no=
rmal"><span>Nagano et al.=E2=80=99s 1993 spring migration dispersal from th=
e coast</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>tag=
recapture data and, to quote Dr.&nbsp;</span>Lincoln Brower:</div><div sty=
le=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal">=E2=80=9Cconvincingly argued that the=
purported bidirectional&nbsp;</div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:n=
ormal">distribution can not be statistically differentiated&nbsp;</div><div=
style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>from random headings.=E2=80=
=9D</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span><br></s=
pan></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span></span><span =
style=3D"font-stretch:normal"><a href=3D"https://imagizer.imageshack.com/im=
g924/724/Nm5dJT.jpg" target=3D"_blank">https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img9=
24/724/Nm5dJT.jpg</a></span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:nor=
mal;min-height:14px"><br></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal=
">Paul Cherubini</div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal">El Dora=
do, Calif.</div><p></p>

</div>
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