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List: western_monarchs
Date: Wed, 25 Mar 2020 09:59:18 -0700
From: 'Ron K. Jeffries' <rjeffries...> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...>
Subject: =?UTF-8?Q?Re=3A_=5Bwestern=5Fmonarchs=5D_What=E2=80=99s_Happening_to_the_=28We?= =?UTF-8?Q?stern=29_Monarch_Butterfly_Population=3F_=28New_York_Times=2C_March_?= =?UTF-8?Q?20=2F20=29?=

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Dr V,

Hope you are well!

Is there a plan to encourage more tagging here in California so we capture
more data?

I understand current regulations must be observed. As you know I
participated in multiple tagging events with Dr Fry and also with you. I
made an attempt at online quiz, screwed up a couple of answers by being too
casual. Damn!

Anyway we consistently see Monarchs in our general area and would love to
contribute to a renewed tagging program

Thx

Ron K Jeffries
805-380-5446
@ronkjeffries on FB and Twitter.

On Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 9:43 PM Francis Xavier Villablanca
<footlooseandfrancisfree...> [western_monarchs] <
<western_monarchs...> wrote:

>
>
> Hi all,
>
> Paul, your comment is appreciated. In the same volume that Nagano et al.
> published their paper arguing for non-random spring remigration dispersal=
,
> Wenner (and Harris) argued that monarchs do not migrate. Clearly, at that
> time, there was disagreement. Even if Lincoln was convincingly persuaded,
> without seeing Wenner's arguments it is hard to agree or disagree. Though
> Lincoln cites Wenner 1994, this was only personal correspondence. There i=
s
> no evidence of what the "reanalysis" was and therefore it is impossible t=
o
> know if it was or was not valid. This is important because in general
> accepting a hypothesis of randomness (as Wenner would have done) is quite
> difficult. For example, one could fail to see a pattern simply due to a
> lack of sufficient data, or due to using a statistical method that lacks
> power to resolve that pattern. In contrast rejecting randomness is quite
> convincing. That is a fundamental premise of statistical testing. So
> without Wenner's work to evaluate the best we have is Nagano et al's
> conclusion.
>
> Just wanted to set the record straight.
>
> Be well, Francis Villablanca
> San Luis Obispo
>
> On Tue, Mar 24, 2020 at 6:04 PM Paul Cherubini <monarch...>
> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...> wrote:
>
>>
>>
>> Francis:
>>
>> =E2=80=9CIn regards to "where do they go." Some data have been
>> interpreted as showing that movement is random. I would
>> caution against accepting that interpretation *if there has *
>> *been no statistical analysis*. For example, Nagano at al.
>> 1993 show that recaptured tags from overwintering monarchs
>> leaving the coast have [a] pattern [that] is non-random.
>> They conclude that *on average* the monarch butterflies
>> they tagged moved in a Northwesterly (326*) and in an
>> Easterly (99*) directions. Figure 3 shows that movement
>> is not *just* in those two directions. There is variation. But
>> the variation is not random.=E2=80=9D
>>
>> In 1994 UC Santa Barbara professor Adrian Wenner reanalyzed
>> Nagano et al.=E2=80=99s 1993 spring migration dispersal from the coast
>> tag recapture data and, to quote Dr. Lincoln Brower:
>> =E2=80=9Cconvincingly argued that the purported bidirectional
>> distribution can not be statistically differentiated
>> from random headings.=E2=80=9D
>>
>> https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/724/Nm5dJT.jpg
>>
>> Paul Cherubini
>> El Dorado, Calif.
>>
>>=20
>

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<div dir=3D"auto">Dr V,<div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">Hope y=
ou are well!</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">Is there a =
plan to encourage more tagging here in California so we capture more data?<=
/div><div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">I understand current reg=
ulations must be observed. As you know I participated in multiple tagging e=
vents with Dr Fry and also with you. I made an attempt at online quiz, scre=
wed up a couple of answers by being too casual. Damn!</div><div dir=3D"auto=
"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">Anyway we consistently see Monarchs in our ge=
neral area and would love to contribute to a renewed tagging program</div><=
div dir=3D"auto"><br></div><div dir=3D"auto">Thx</div><div dir=3D"auto"><br=
></div><div dir=3D"auto">Ron K Jeffries</div><div dir=3D"auto">805-380-5446=
</div><div dir=3D"auto">@ronkjeffries on FB and Twitter.</div></div><br><di=
v class=3D"gmail_quote"><div dir=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr">On Tue, Mar 2=
4, 2020, 9:43 PM Francis Xavier Villablanca <a href=3D"mailto:footlooseandf=
<rancisfree...>"><footlooseandfrancisfree...></a> [western_monarc=
hs] &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:<western_monarchs...>">western_monarch=
<s...></a>&gt; wrote:<br></div><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote"=
style=3D"margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">


<u></u>









=20
<div style=3D"background-color:#fff">
<span style=3D"display:none">=C2=A0</span>


<div id=3D"m_-1117421164584719739ygrp-mlmsg">
<div id=3D"m_-1117421164584719739ygrp-msg">


<div id=3D"m_-1117421164584719739ygrp-text">
=20=20=20=20=20=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20
<p><div dir=3D"ltr">Hi all,<div><br></div><div>Paul, your comment is =
appreciated. In the same volume=C2=A0that Nagano et al. published their pap=
er arguing for non-random spring remigration dispersal, Wenner (and Harris)=
argued that monarchs do not migrate. Clearly, at that time, there was disa=
greement. Even if Lincoln was convincingly persuaded, without seeing Wenner=
&#39;s arguments it is hard to agree or disagree. Though Lincoln cites Wenn=
er 1994, this was only personal correspondence. There is no evidence of wha=
t the &quot;reanalysis&quot; was and therefore it is impossible to know if =
it was or was not valid. This is important because in general accepting a h=
ypothesis of randomness (as Wenner would have done) is quite difficult. For=
example, one could fail to see a pattern simply due to a lack of sufficien=
t data, or due to using a statistical method that lacks power to resolve th=
at pattern. In contrast rejecting randomness is quite convincing. That is a=
fundamental premise of statistical testing. So without Wenner&#39;s work t=
o evaluate the best we=C2=A0have is Nagano et al&#39;s conclusion.</div><di=
v><br></div><div>Just wanted to set the record straight.</div><div><br></di=
v><div>Be well, Francis Villablanca</div><div>San Luis Obispo=C2=A0</div></=
div><br><div class=3D"gmail_quote"><div dir=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr">On=
Tue, Mar 24, 2020 at 6:04 PM Paul Cherubini <a href=3D"mailto:monarch@sabe=
r.net" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noreferrer"><monarch...></a> [western_=
monarchs] &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:<western_monarchs...>" target=3D=
"_blank" rel=3D"noreferrer"><western_monarchs...></a>&gt; wrote:=
<br></div><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8=
ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204)">


<u></u>









=20
<div style=3D"background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">
<span>=C2=A0</span>


<div id=3D"m_-1117421164584719739gmail-m_-6286414984028035807ygrp-mlmsg">
<div id=3D"m_-1117421164584719739gmail-m_-6286414984028035807ygrp-msg">


<div id=3D"m_-1117421164584719739gmail-m_-6286414984028035807ygrp-text"=
>
=20=20=20=20=20=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20
<p></p><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>Francis:</=
span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal;min-height:18px"><s=
pan></span><br></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>=
=E2=80=9CIn regards to &quot;where do they go.&quot; Some data have been=C2=
=A0</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>interpr=
eted=C2=A0as showing that movement is random. I would</span></div><div styl=
e=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>caution=C2=A0against accepting t=
hat interpretation=C2=A0<i>if there has=C2=A0</i></span></div><div style=3D=
"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span><i>been no statistical analysis</i>.=
For example, Nagano at al.=C2=A0</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font=
-stretch:normal"><span>1993 show that recaptured tags from overwintering mo=
narchs=C2=A0</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><spa=
n>leaving=C2=A0the coast have [a] pattern [that] is non-random.=C2=A0</span=
></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>They conclude th=
at=C2=A0<i>on average</i>=C2=A0the monarch butterflies=C2=A0</span></div><d=
iv style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>they tagged moved in a No=
rthwesterly (326*) and in an=C2=A0</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;fon=
t-stretch:normal"><span>Easterly (99*) directions. Figure 3 shows=C2=A0that=
movement=C2=A0</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><=
span>is not=C2=A0<i>just</i>=C2=A0in those two directions. There is variati=
on. But=C2=A0</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><sp=
an>the variation is not random.=E2=80=9D</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0=
px;font-stretch:normal;min-height:18px"><span></span><br></div><div style=
=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>In 1994 UC Santa Barbara professo=
r Adrian Wenner reanalyzed=C2=A0</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-=
stretch:normal"><span>Nagano et al.=E2=80=99s 1993 spring migration dispers=
al from the coast</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"=
><span>tag recapture data and, to quote Dr.=C2=A0</span>Lincoln Brower:</di=
v><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal">=E2=80=9Cconvincingly argue=
d that the purported bidirectional=C2=A0</div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font=
-stretch:normal">distribution can not be statistically differentiated=C2=A0=
</div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span>from random headi=
ngs.=E2=80=9D</span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><sp=
an><br></span></div><div style=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal"><span></s=
pan><span style=3D"font-stretch:normal"><a href=3D"https://imagizer.imagesh=
ack.com/img924/724/Nm5dJT.jpg" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"noreferrer">https:/=
/imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/724/Nm5dJT.jpg</a></span></div><div style=
=3D"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal;min-height:14px"><br></div><div style=3D=
"margin:0px;font-stretch:normal">Paul Cherubini</div><div style=3D"margin:0=
px;font-stretch:normal">El Dorado, Calif.</div><p></p>

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