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List: western_monarchs
Date: Wed, 25 Mar 2020 13:15:01 -0700
From: 'Georgia Goldfarb, MD' <georgia.goldfarb...> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...>
Subject: =?UTF-8?Q?RE:_=5Bwestern=5Fmonarchs=5D_What=E2=80=99s_Ha?= =?UTF-8?Q?ppening_to_the_=28Western=29_Monarch?= =?UTF-8?Q?_Butterfly_Population=3F_=28New_York?= =?UTF-8?Q?_Times=2C_March_20/20=29?=

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Thanks, Ron.

Hopefully the perfect isn=E2=80=99t the enemy of the good.

g

=20

=20

=20

From: <western_monarchs...> [mailto:western_monarchs@yahoogroups=
..com]=20
Sent: Wednesday, March 25, 2020 9:59 AM
To: <western_monarchs...>
Subject: Re: [western_monarchs] What=E2=80=99s Happening to the (Western) M=
onarch Butterfly Population? (New York Times, March 20/20)

=20

=20=20

Dr V,

=20

Hope you are well!

=20

Is there a plan to encourage more tagging here in California so we capture =
more data?

=20

I understand current regulations must be observed. As you know I participat=
ed in multiple tagging events with Dr Fry and also with you. I made an atte=
mpt at online quiz, screwed up a couple of answers by being too casual. Dam=
n!

=20

Anyway we consistently see Monarchs in our general area and would love to c=
ontribute to a renewed tagging program

=20

Thx

=20

Ron K Jeffries

805-380-5446

@ronkjeffries on FB and Twitter.

=20

On Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 9:43 PM Francis Xavier Villablanca footlooseandfranci=
<sfree...> <mailto:<footlooseandfrancisfree...> [western_monarc=
hs] <western_monarchs...> <mailto:western_monarchs@yahoogroups.=
com> > wrote:

=20=20

Hi all,

=20

Paul, your comment is appreciated. In the same volume that Nagano et al. pu=
blished their paper arguing for non-random spring remigration dispersal, We=
nner (and Harris) argued that monarchs do not migrate. Clearly, at that tim=
e, there was disagreement. Even if Lincoln was convincingly persuaded, with=
out seeing Wenner's arguments it is hard to agree or disagree. Though Linco=
ln cites Wenner 1994, this was only personal correspondence. There is no ev=
idence of what the "reanalysis" was and therefore it is impossible to know =
if it was or was not valid. This is important because in general accepting =
a hypothesis of randomness (as Wenner would have done) is quite difficult. =
For example, one could fail to see a pattern simply due to a lack of suffic=
ient data, or due to using a statistical method that lacks power to resolve=
that pattern. In contrast rejecting randomness is quite convincing. That i=
s a fundamental premise of statistical testing. So without Wenner's work to=
evaluate the best we have is Nagano et al's conclusion.

=20

Just wanted to set the record straight.

=20

Be well, Francis Villablanca

San Luis Obispo=20

=20

On Tue, Mar 24, 2020 at 6:04 PM Paul Cherubini <monarch...> <mailto:mo=
<narch...> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...> <mai=
lto:<western_monarchs...> > wrote:

=20=20

Francis:

=20

=E2=80=9CIn regards to "where do they go." Some data have been=20

interpreted as showing that movement is random. I would

caution against accepting that interpretation if there has=20

been no statistical analysis. For example, Nagano at al.=20

1993 show that recaptured tags from overwintering monarchs=20

leaving the coast have [a] pattern [that] is non-random.=20

They conclude that on average the monarch butterflies=20

they tagged moved in a Northwesterly (326*) and in an=20

Easterly (99*) directions. Figure 3 shows that movement=20

is not just in those two directions. There is variation. But=20

the variation is not random.=E2=80=9D

=20

In 1994 UC Santa Barbara professor Adrian Wenner reanalyzed=20

Nagano et al.=E2=80=99s 1993 spring migration dispersal from the coast

tag recapture data and, to quote Dr. Lincoln Brower:

=E2=80=9Cconvincingly argued that the purported bidirectional=20

distribution can not be statistically differentiated=20

from random headings.=E2=80=9D

=20

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/724/Nm5dJT.jpg

=20

Paul Cherubini

El Dorado, Calif.




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<div class=3DWordSection1><p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'font-size:11.=
0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>Thanks, Ron.<o:p></o:p>=
</span></p><p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family=
:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>Hopefully the perfect isn=E2=80=99t th=
e enemy of the good.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=
=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'>g<o:p>=
</o:p></span></p><div><p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'font-size:8.0pt;f=
ont-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>=
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",=
sans-serif;color:#1F497D'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p></div><p class=3DMsoN=
ormal><span style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif;colo=
r:#1F497D'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p><div><div style=3D'border:none;borde=
r-top:solid #E1E1E1 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=3DMsoNormal><=
b><span style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>From:</=
span></b><span style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif'>=
<western_monarchs...> [mailto:<western_monarchs...>]=
<br><b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, March 25, 2020 9:59 AM<br><b>To:</b> western_m=
<onarchs...><br><b>Subject:</b> Re: [western_monarchs] What=E2=
=80=99s Happening to the (Western) Monarch Butterfly Population? (New York =
Times, March 20/20)<o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div><p class=3DMsoNormal><=
o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p><p class=3DMsoNormal>&nbsp; <o:p></o:p></p><div id=3Dyg=
rp-mlmsg><div id=3Dygrp-msg><div id=3Dygrp-text><div><p class=3DMsoNormal>D=
r V,<o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div><di=
v><p class=3DMsoNormal>Hope you are well!<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=
=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal>Is there =
a plan to encourage more tagging here in California so we capture more data=
?<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div>=
<div><p class=3DMsoNormal>I understand current regulations must be observed=
.. As you know I participated in multiple tagging events with Dr Fry and als=
o with you. I made an attempt at online quiz, screwed up a couple of answer=
s by being too casual. Damn!<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal>=
<o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal>Anyway we consistently=
see Monarchs in our general area and would love to contribute to a renewed=
tagging program<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;<=
/o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal>Thx<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p cl=
ass=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal>Ron K =
Jeffries<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal>805-380-5446<o:p></o=
:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal>@ronkjeffries on FB and Twitter.<o:p=
></o:p></p></div></div><p class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p><div><div>=
<p class=3DMsoNormal>On Tue, Mar 24, 2020, 9:43 PM Francis Xavier Villablan=
ca <a href=3D"mailto:<footlooseandfrancisfree...>">footlooseandfrancis=
<free...></a> [western_monarchs] &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:western_monarch=
<s...>"><western_monarchs...></a>&gt; wrote:<o:p></o:=
p></p></div><blockquote style=3D'border:none;border-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0p=
t;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt'><div><p cla=
ss=3DMsoNormal style=3D'background:white'>&nbsp; <o:p></o:p></p><div id=3D"=
m_-1117421164584719739ygrp-mlmsg"><div id=3D"m_-1117421164584719739ygrp-msg=
"><div id=3D"m_-1117421164584719739ygrp-text"><div><p class=3DMsoNormal sty=
le=3D'background:white'>Hi all,<o:p></o:p></p><div><p class=3DMsoNormal sty=
le=3D'background:white'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNorma=
l style=3D'background:white'>Paul, your comment is appreciated. In the same=
volume&nbsp;that Nagano et al. published their paper arguing for non-rando=
m spring remigration dispersal, Wenner (and Harris) argued that monarchs do=
not migrate. Clearly, at that time, there was disagreement. Even if Lincol=
n was convincingly persuaded, without seeing Wenner's arguments it is hard =
to agree or disagree. Though Lincoln cites Wenner 1994, this was only perso=
nal correspondence. There is no evidence of what the &quot;reanalysis&quot;=
was and therefore it is impossible to know if it was or was not valid. Thi=
s is important because in general accepting a hypothesis of randomness (as =
Wenner would have done) is quite difficult. For example, one could fail to =
see a pattern simply due to a lack of sufficient data, or due to using a st=
atistical method that lacks power to resolve that pattern. In contrast reje=
cting randomness is quite convincing. That is a fundamental premise of stat=
istical testing. So without Wenner's work to evaluate the best we&nbsp;have=
is Nagano et al's conclusion.<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNorma=
l style=3D'background:white'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMso=
Normal style=3D'background:white'>Just wanted to set the record straight.<o=
:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'background:white'><o:=
p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'background:white=
'>Be well, Francis Villablanca<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNorma=
l style=3D'background:white'>San Luis Obispo&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></p></div></di=
v><p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'background:white'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p><div=
><div><p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'background:white'>On Tue, Mar 24, 2020 =
at 6:04 PM Paul Cherubini <a href=3D"mailto:<monarch...>" target=3D"_b=
lank"><monarch...></a> [western_monarchs] &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:wester=
<n_monarchs...>" target=3D"_blank">western_monarchs@yahoogroups.=
com</a>&gt; wrote:<o:p></o:p></p></div><blockquote style=3D'border:none;bor=
der-left:solid #CCCCCC 1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in;margin-left:4.8pt;marg=
in-right:0in'><div><p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'background:white'>&nbsp; <=
o:p></o:p></p><div id=3D"m_-1117421164584719739gmail-m_-6286414984028035807=
ygrp-mlmsg"><div id=3D"m_-1117421164584719739gmail-m_-6286414984028035807yg=
rp-msg"><div id=3D"m_-1117421164584719739gmail-m_-6286414984028035807ygrp-t=
ext"><div><p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'background:white'>Francis:<o:p></o:=
p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'background:white'><o:p>&nbsp=
;</o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'background:white'>=E2=
=80=9CIn regards to &quot;where do they go.&quot; Some data have been&nbsp;=
<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'background:white'>i=
nterpreted&nbsp;as showing that movement is random. I would<o:p></o:p></p><=
/div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'background:white'>caution&nbsp;agai=
nst accepting that interpretation&nbsp;<i>if there has&nbsp;</i><o:p></o:p>=
</p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'background:white'><i>been no s=
tatistical analysis</i>. For example, Nagano at al.&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></p></d=
iv><div><p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'background:white'>1993 show that reca=
ptured tags from overwintering monarchs&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p c=
lass=3DMsoNormal style=3D'background:white'>leaving&nbsp;the coast have [a]=
pattern [that] is non-random.&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMs=
oNormal style=3D'background:white'>They conclude that&nbsp;<i>on average</i=
>&nbsp;the monarch butterflies&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMs=
oNormal style=3D'background:white'>they tagged moved in a Northwesterly (32=
6*) and in an&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'=
background:white'>Easterly (99*) directions. Figure 3 shows&nbsp;that movem=
ent&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'background=
:white'>is not&nbsp;<i>just</i>&nbsp;in those two directions. There is vari=
ation. But&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'bac=
kground:white'>the variation is not random.=E2=80=9D<o:p></o:p></p></div><d=
iv><p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'background:white'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></d=
iv><div><p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'background:white'>In 1994 UC Santa Ba=
rbara professor Adrian Wenner reanalyzed&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p =
class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'background:white'>Nagano et al.=E2=80=99s 1993 s=
pring migration dispersal from the coast<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=
=3DMsoNormal style=3D'background:white'>tag recapture data and, to quote Dr=
..&nbsp;Lincoln Brower:<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal style=
=3D'background:white'>=E2=80=9Cconvincingly argued that the purported bidir=
ectional&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'backg=
round:white'>distribution can not be statistically differentiated&nbsp;<o:p=
></o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'background:white'>from =
random headings.=E2=80=9D<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal sty=
le=3D'background:white'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNorma=
l style=3D'background:white'><a href=3D"https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img=
924/724/Nm5dJT.jpg" target=3D"_blank">https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img92=
4/724/Nm5dJT.jpg</a><o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D=
'background:white'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal sty=
le=3D'background:white'>Paul Cherubini<o:p></o:p></p></div><div><p class=3D=
MsoNormal style=3D'background:white'>El Dorado, Calif.<o:p></o:p></p></div>=
</div></div></div></div></blockquote></div></div></div></div></div></blockq=
uote></div></div><div><p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'color:white'><o:p=
></o:p></span></p></div></div>



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