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List: western_monarchs
Date: Wed, 25 Mar 2020 14:40:14 -0700
From: Francis Xavier Villablanca <footlooseandfrancisfree...> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...>
Subject: =?UTF-8?Q?Re=3A_=5Bwestern=5Fmonarchs=5D_What=E2=80=99s_Happening_to_the_=28We?= =?UTF-8?Q?stern=29_Monarch_Butterfly_Population=3F_=28New_York_Times=2C_March_?= =?UTF-8?Q?20=2F20=29?=

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Hi all,

Yes, fully agree.

"The pattern of recaptures suggested that butterflies tagged in the Los
Angeles Basin moved due east, those tagged in Santa Barbara County moved
east or north-east, while those tagged north of Santa Barbara moved
north-east, although differences between directions were not statistically
significant (Wenner in Brower, 1995). The apparent divide between
butterflies from Los Angeles and those from farther north was imposed by
the Mojave Desert." This cites the same correspondence between Wenner and
Brower.

This is not random. One population seems to move in one direction. The
other population seems to move in another direction. When you compare one
groups to the other to see if their directions are different, they are not
statistically different (as the sample sizes when separate are smaller and
there is less power). But if you pool them into one, the remigration
patterns are not random (larger sample size and more power).

Be well, Francis

Francis Villablanca
San Luis Obispo

On Tue, Mar 24, 2020 at 11:46 PM Paul Cherubini <monarch...>
[western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...> wrote:

>
>
> Francis: "Even if Lincoln was convincingly persuaded, without seeing
> Wenner's arguments it is hard to agree or disagree.=E2=80=9D
>
> In addition to Lincoln, another co-author of Nagano et al 1993 paper
> - Prof. Myron Zalucki - was similar pursuaded by Wenner=E2=80=99s statist=
ical
> reanalysis as well as UC Davis entomology professor Hugh Dingle who
> specializes in insect behavior.
>
> Evidence: In this 2005 paper
> https://academic.oup.com/biolinnean/article/85/4/491/2691594
>
> Dingle & Zalucki wrote:
>
> "Tagging experiments showed that other monarchs from the winter
> aggregations moved during a brief period in the spring up to 465 km
> inland from the tagging sites (Nagano et al., 1993)..
>
> The pattern of recaptures suggested that butterflies tagged
> in the Los Angeles Basin moved due east, those tagged in Santa Barbara
> County moved east or north-east, while those tagged north of Santa
> Barbara moved north-east, although differences between directions
> were not statistically significant (Wenner in Brower, 1995).
>
> The apparent divide between butterflies from Los Angeles and those
> from farther north was imposed by the Mojave Desert."
>
> Paul Cherubini
> El Dorado, Calif.
>
>=20
>

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<div dir=3D"ltr">Hi all,<div><br></div><div>Yes, fully agree.=C2=A0</div><d=
iv><span style=3D"color:rgb(42,42,42);font-family:Merriweather,serif;font-s=
ize:18.75px"><br></span></div><div><span style=3D"color:rgb(42,42,42);font-=
family:Merriweather,serif;font-size:18.75px">&quot;The pattern of recapture=
s suggested that butterflies tagged in the Los Angeles Basin moved due east=
, those tagged in Santa Barbara County moved east or north-east, while thos=
e tagged north of Santa Barbara moved north-east, although differences betw=
een directions were not statistically significant (Wenner in=C2=A0</span><a=
class=3D"gmail-link gmail-link-ref gmail-link-reveal gmail-xref-bibr" styl=
e=3D"box-sizing:border-box;margin:0px;padding:0px;border:0px;font-variant-n=
umeric:inherit;font-variant-east-asian:inherit;font-stretch:inherit;font-si=
ze:18.75px;line-height:inherit;font-family:Merriweather,serif;vertical-alig=
n:baseline;color:rgb(0,111,183);word-break:break-word">Brower, 1995</a><spa=
n style=3D"color:rgb(42,42,42);font-family:Merriweather,serif;font-size:18.=
75px">). The apparent divide between butterflies from Los Angeles and those=
from farther north was imposed by the Mojave Desert.&quot; This cites the=
=C2=A0same correspondence between=C2=A0Wenner and Brower.</span></div><div>=
<span style=3D"color:rgb(42,42,42);font-family:Merriweather,serif;font-size=
:18.75px"><br></span></div><div><span style=3D"color:rgb(42,42,42)"><font f=
ace=3D"arial, sans-serif">This is not random. One population seems to move =
in one direction. The other population seems to move in another direction. =
When you compare one groups to the other to see if their directions are dif=
ferent, they are not statistically different (as the sample sizes when sepa=
rate are smaller and there is less power). But if you pool them into one, t=
he remigration patterns are not random (larger sample=C2=A0size=C2=A0and mo=
re power).</font></span></div><div><span style=3D"color:rgb(42,42,42)"><fon=
t face=3D"arial, sans-serif"><br></font></span></div><div><span style=3D"co=
lor:rgb(42,42,42)"><font face=3D"arial, sans-serif">Be well, Francis</font>=
</span></div><div><span style=3D"color:rgb(42,42,42)"><font face=3D"arial, =
sans-serif"><br></font></span></div><div><span style=3D"color:rgb(42,42,42)=
"><font face=3D"arial, sans-serif">Francis Villablanca</font></span></div><=
div><span style=3D"color:rgb(42,42,42)"><font face=3D"arial, sans-serif">Sa=
n Luis Obispo</font></span></div></div><br><div class=3D"gmail_quote"><div =
dir=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr">On Tue, Mar 24, 2020 at 11:46 PM Paul Cher=
ubini <a href=3D"mailto:<monarch...>"><monarch...></a> [western_m=
onarchs] &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:<western_monarchs...>">western_mo=
<narchs...></a>&gt; wrote:<br></div><blockquote class=3D"gmail_q=
uote" style=3D"margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,2=
04);padding-left:1ex">


<u></u>









=20
<div style=3D"background-color:rgb(255,255,255)">
<span style=3D"display:none">=C2=A0</span>


<div id=3D"gmail-m_1442725581185368563ygrp-mlmsg">
<div id=3D"gmail-m_1442725581185368563ygrp-msg">


<div id=3D"gmail-m_1442725581185368563ygrp-text">
=20=20=20=20=20=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20
<p></p><div><span style=3D"color:rgb(42,42,42);background-color:rgb(2=
55,255,255)">Francis: &quot;</span>Even if Lincoln was convincingly persuad=
ed, without seeing</div><div>Wenner&#39;s arguments it is hard to agree or =
disagree.=E2=80=9D</div><div><br></div><div>In addition to Lincoln, another=
co-author of Nagano et al 1993 paper</div><div>- Prof. Myron Zalucki - was=
similar pursuaded by Wenner=E2=80=99s statistical=C2=A0</div><div>reanalys=
is as well as UC Davis entomology professor Hugh Dingle who</div><div>speci=
alizes in insect behavior.</div><div><br></div><div>Evidence: In this 2005 =
paper=C2=A0</div><div><a href=3D"https://academic.oup.com/biolinnean/articl=
e/85/4/491/2691594" target=3D"_blank">https://academic.oup.com/biolinnean/a=
rticle/85/4/491/2691594</a></div><div><br></div><div>Dingle &amp; Zalucki w=
rote:=C2=A0</div><div><br></div><div>&quot;<span style=3D"color:rgb(42,42,4=
2)">Tagging experiments showed that other=C2=A0</span><span style=3D"color:=
rgb(42,42,42)">monarchs from the winter=C2=A0</span></div><div><span style=
=3D"color:rgb(42,42,42)">aggregations moved during a brief period=C2=A0</sp=
an><span style=3D"color:rgb(42,42,42)">in the spring up to 465 km=C2=A0</sp=
an></div><div><span style=3D"color:rgb(42,42,42)">inland from the tagging s=
ites (</span><a style=3D"font-size:inherit;margin:0px;padding:0px;font-styl=
e:inherit;font-stretch:inherit;vertical-align:baseline;color:rgb(0,111,183)=
">Nagano=C2=A0<span style=3D"margin:0px;padding:0px;font-size:inherit;font-=
style:italic;font-stretch:inherit;vertical-align:baseline">et=C2=A0</span><=
/a><a style=3D"font-size:inherit;margin:0px;padding:0px;font-style:inherit;=
font-stretch:inherit;vertical-align:baseline;color:rgb(0,111,183)"><span st=
yle=3D"margin:0px;padding:0px;font-size:inherit;font-style:italic;font-stre=
tch:inherit;vertical-align:baseline">al</span>., 1993</a><span style=3D"col=
or:rgb(42,42,42)">)..=C2=A0</span></div><div><span style=3D"color:rgb(42,42=
,42)"><br></span></div><div><span style=3D"color:rgb(42,42,42)">The pattern=
of=C2=A0</span><span style=3D"color:rgb(42,42,42)">recaptures suggested th=
at butterflies tagged=C2=A0</span></div><div><span style=3D"color:rgb(42,42=
,42)">in the Los Angeles Basin moved due east, those tagged in Santa Barbar=
a=C2=A0</span></div><div><span style=3D"color:rgb(42,42,42)">County moved e=
ast or north-east, while those tagged north of Santa=C2=A0</span></div><div=
><span style=3D"color:rgb(42,42,42)">Barbara moved north-east, although dif=
ferences between directions=C2=A0</span></div><div><span style=3D"color:rgb=
(42,42,42)">were not statistically significant (Wenner in</span><span style=
=3D"color:rgb(42,42,42)">=C2=A0</span><a style=3D"font-size:inherit;margin:=
0px;padding:0px;font-style:inherit;font-stretch:inherit;vertical-align:base=
line;color:rgb(0,111,183)">Brower, 1995</a><span style=3D"color:rgb(42,42,4=
2)">).=C2=A0</span></div><div><span style=3D"color:rgb(42,42,42)"><br></spa=
n></div><div><span style=3D"color:rgb(42,42,42)">The=C2=A0</span><span styl=
e=3D"color:rgb(42,42,42)">apparent divide between butterflies from Los Ange=
les and those=C2=A0</span></div><div><span style=3D"color:rgb(42,42,42)">fr=
om farther north was imposed by the Mojave Desert.&quot;</span></div><div><=
span style=3D"color:rgb(42,42,42)"><br></span></div><span style=3D"color:rg=
b(42,42,42);background-color:rgb(255,255,255)"><div>Paul Cherubini</div><di=
v>El Dorado, Calif.</div></span><p></p>

</div>
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Posted by: Francis Xavier Villablanca &lt;footlooseandfrancisfree@=
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