Jump to :     |    View All Lists    |    FAQ
List: western_monarchs
Date: Wed, 25 Mar 2020 20:22:33 -0700
From: 'Dave Wikle' <wikleps2...> [western_monarchs] <western_monarchs...>
Subject: =?UTF-8?Q?RE:_=5Bwestern=5Fmonarchs=5D_What=E2=80=99s_Ha?= =?UTF-8?Q?ppening_to_the_=28Western=29_Monarch?= =?UTF-8?Q?_Butterfly_Population=3F_=28New_York?= =?UTF-8?Q?_Times=2C_March_20/20=29?=

------=_NextPart_000_0013_01D602E3.1E769D10
Content-Type: text/plain;
charset="UTF-8"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

This sounds an awful lot like quantum flux, Heisenberg uncertainty and the =
observer effect. If you look for it, it isn=E2=80=99t what you were lookin=
g for anymore. Just by looking for it skews the data. According to Susski=
nd, entropy is now information, not just randomness and chaos. Now look wh=
at you=E2=80=99ve done.

=20

From: <western_monarchs...> [mailto:western_monarchs@yahoogroups=
..com]=20
Sent: Wednesday, March 25, 2020 8:10 AM
To: Francis Xavier Villablanca <footlooseandfrancisfree...> [western_m=
onarchs]
Subject: Re: [western_monarchs] What=E2=80=99s Happening to the (Western) M=
onarch Butterfly Population? (New York Times, March 20/20)

=20

=20=20

Whether the distribution of tagged butterflies moving away from overwinteri=
ng sites in the West is (was) random or preferential depending on=20
site of origin can=E2=80=99t be determined from this data set. There are to=
o many unknowns. The number one issue is the distribution and density of th=
e human population along with their inclination to report sightings/recaptu=
res.=20
Recaptures and sightings are human density centric. That=E2=80=99s very app=
arent in the JN first sightings data. When analyzed by latitude, the JN sig=
htings spike with each major city from SA to KC in the midwest. Further, th=
ere are gaps each year in rural areas at latitudes where human density is l=
ow and the inclination to report sightings is also low. And then there is w=
ind direction and wind speed that varies with the seasons and latitudes. Mo=
narchs like a tail wind and that has to factor in to the interpretation. Th=
ere are also issues of numbers tagged per site and dates of departure which=
are likely to be later for cooler overwintering sites further up the coast=
... Monarchs seek out more humid sites as well and there are probably other =
things we don=E2=80=99t know. In my view, we are left with two reasonable h=
ypotheses both of which require further testing.=20

This scenario is a bit like tracking the impact of the movements of those w=
ho are shedding the Covid-19 virus. The impact of those moving into low den=
sity populations may be relatively low and delayed while those moving into =
high density close contact populations would be much greater and more easil=
y detected - and more serious overall since encounters with or spread to th=
ose who are most like to be seriously affected would increase.=20

Be safe out there.=20




------=_NextPart_000_0013_01D602E3.1E769D10
Content-Type: text/html; charset=UTF-8
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable





<head>

<style type=3D"text/css">
<!--

/* start of attachment style */
.ygrp-photo-title{
clear: both;
font-size: smaller;
height: 15px;
overflow: hidden;
text-align: center;
width: 75px;
}
div.ygrp-photo{
background-position: center;
background-repeat: no-repeat;
background-color: white;
border: 1px solid black;
height: 62px;
width: 62px;
}

div.photo-title=20
a,
div.photo-title a:active,
div.photo-title a:hover,
div.photo-title a:visited {
text-decoration: none;=20
}

div.attach-table div.attach-row {
clear: both;
}

div.attach-table div.attach-row div {
float: left;
/* margin: 2px;*/
}

p {
clear: both;
padding: 15px 0 3px 0;
overflow: hidden;
}

div.ygrp-file {
width: 30px;
valign: middle;
}
div.attach-table div.attach-row div div a {
text-decoration: none;
}

div.attach-table div.attach-row div div span {
font-weight: normal;
}

div.ygrp-file-title {
font-weight: bold;
}
/* end of attachment style */
-->
</style>
</head>
<html xmlns:v=3D"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:vml" xmlns:o=3D"urn:schemas-micr=
osoft-com:office:office" xmlns:w=3D"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:word" =
xmlns:m=3D"http://schemas.microsoft.com/office/2004/12/omml" xmlns=3D"http:=
//www.w3.org/TR/REC-html40"><head><meta http-equiv=3DContent-Type content=
=3D"text/html; charset=3Dutf-8"><meta name=3DGenerator content=3D"Microsoft=
Word 12 (filtered medium)"><style><!--
/* Font Definitions */
@font-face
{font-family:Wingdings;
panose-1:5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0;}
@font-face
{font-family:"Cambria Math";
panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Calibri;
panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Tahoma;
panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Verdana;
panose-1:2 11 6 4 3 5 4 4 2 4;}
@font-face
{font-family:Consolas;
panose-1:2 11 6 9 2 2 4 3 2 4;}
/* Style Definitions */
p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal
{margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";}
a:link, span.MsoHyperlink
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:blue;
text-decoration:underline;}
a:visited, span.MsoHyperlinkFollowed
{mso-style-priority:99;
color:purple;
text-decoration:underline;}
p
{mso-style-priority:99;
mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
margin-right:0in;
mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:0in;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";}
code
{mso-style-priority:99;
font-family:"Courier New";}
pre
{mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-link:"HTML Preformatted Char";
margin:0in;
margin-bottom:.0001pt;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Courier New";}
tt
{mso-style-priority:99;
font-family:"Courier New";}
span.HTMLPreformattedChar
{mso-style-name:"HTML Preformatted Char";
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-link:"HTML Preformatted";
font-family:"Consolas","serif";}
p.attach, li.attach, div.attach
{mso-style-name:attach;
mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
margin-right:0in;
mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:0in;
font-size:9.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";}
p.bold, li.bold, div.bold
{mso-style-name:bold;
mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
margin-right:0in;
mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:0in;
font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";
font-weight:bold;}
p.green, li.green, div.green
{mso-style-name:green;
mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
margin-right:0in;
mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:0in;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";
color:#628C2A;}
p.replbq, li.replbq, div.replbq
{mso-style-name:replbq;
margin:3.0pt;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";}
p.ad, li.ad, div.ad
{mso-style-name:ad;
mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
margin-right:0in;
mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:0in;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";}
p.underline, li.underline, div.underline
{mso-style-name:underline;
mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
margin-right:0in;
mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:0in;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";}
span.yshortcuts
{mso-style-name:yshortcuts;}
p.ad1, li.ad1, div.ad1
{mso-style-name:ad1;
mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
margin-right:0in;
mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:0in;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";}
p.ad2, li.ad2, div.ad2
{mso-style-name:ad2;
mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
margin-right:0in;
margin-bottom:7.5pt;
margin-left:0in;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";}
p.underline1, li.underline1, div.underline1
{mso-style-name:underline1;
mso-margin-top-alt:auto;
margin-right:0in;
mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;
margin-left:0in;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";
text-decoration:underline;}
span.yshortcuts1
{mso-style-name:yshortcuts1;
font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";
font-weight:bold;}
span.yshortcuts2
{mso-style-name:yshortcuts2;
font-family:"Verdana","sans-serif";
font-weight:normal;}
span.EmailStyle34
{mso-style-type:personal-reply;
font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";
color:#1F497D;}
..MsoChpDefault
{mso-style-type:export-only;
font-size:10.0pt;}
@page WordSection1
{size:8.5in 11.0in;
margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in;}
div.WordSection1
{page:WordSection1;}
/* List Definitions */
@list l0
{mso-list-id:219633423;
mso-list-template-ids:1641551446;}
@list l0:level1
{mso-level-number-format:bullet;
mso-level-text:=EF=82=B7;
mso-level-tab-stop:.5in;
mso-level-number-position:left;
text-indent:-.25in;
mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Symbol;}
ol
{margin-bottom:0in;}
ul
{margin-bottom:0in;}
--></style><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapedefaults v:ext=3D"edit" spidmax=3D"1026" />
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:shapelayout v:ext=3D"edit">
<o:idmap v:ext=3D"edit" data=3D"1" />
</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body bgcolor=3Dwhite lang=3DEN-US=
link=3Dblue vlink=3Dpurple>


<!-- |**|begin egp html banner|**| -->

<br><br>

<!-- |**|end egp html banner|**| -->


<div class=3DWordSection1><p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'font-size:11.=
0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>This sounds an awful =
lot like quantum flux, Heisenberg uncertainty and the observer effect. =C2=
=A0If you look for it, it isn=E2=80=99t what you were looking for anymore.=
=C2=A0 Just by looking for it skews the data.=C2=A0 According to Susskind, =
entropy is now information, not just randomness and chaos.=C2=A0 Now look w=
hat you=E2=80=99ve done.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=3DMsoNormal><span st=
yle=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><=
o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p><div><div style=3D'border:none;border-top:solid =
#B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in 0in 0in'><p class=3DMsoNormal><b><span styl=
e=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><s=
pan style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'> western_m=
<onarchs...> [mailto:<western_monarchs...>] <br><b>Se=
nt:</b> Wednesday, March 25, 2020 8:10 AM<br><b>To:</b> Francis Xavier Vill=
ablanca <footlooseandfrancisfree...> [western_monarchs]<br><b>Subject:=
</b> Re: [western_monarchs] What=E2=80=99s Happening to the (Western) Monar=
ch Butterfly Population? (New York Times, March 20/20)<o:p></o:p></span></p=
></div></div><p class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p><p class=3DMsoNormal=
>&nbsp; <o:p></o:p></p><div id=3Dygrp-mlmsg><div id=3Dygrp-msg><div id=3Dyg=
rp-text><p style=3D'margin-bottom:12.0pt'>Whether the distribution of tagge=
d butterflies moving away from overwintering sites in the West is (was) ran=
dom or preferential depending on <br>site of origin can=E2=80=99t be determ=
ined from this data set. There are too many unknowns. The number one issue =
is the distribution and density of the human population along with their in=
clination to report sightings/recaptures. <br>Recaptures and sightings are =
human density centric. That=E2=80=99s very apparent in the JN first sightin=
gs data. When analyzed by latitude, the JN sightings spike with each major =
city from SA to KC in the midwest. Further, there are gaps each year in rur=
al areas at latitudes where human density is low and the inclination to rep=
ort sightings is also low. And then there is wind direction and wind speed =
that varies with the seasons and latitudes. Monarchs like a tail wind and t=
hat has to factor in to the interpretation. There are also issues of number=
s tagged per site and dates of departure which are likely to be later for c=
ooler overwintering sites further up the coast.. Monarchs seek out more hum=
id sites as well and there are probably other things we don=E2=80=99t know.=
In my view, we are left with two reasonable hypotheses both of which requi=
re further testing. <br><br>This scenario is a bit like tracking the impact=
of the movements of those who are shedding the Covid-19 virus. The impact =
of those moving into low density populations may be relatively low and dela=
yed while those moving into high density close contact populations would be=
much greater and more easily detected - and more serious overall since enc=
ounters with or spread to those who are most like to be seriously affected =
would increase. <br><br>Be safe out there. <br><br><span style=3D'color:whi=
te'><o:p></o:p></span></p></div></div></div></div>



<!-- |**|begin egp html banner|**| -->

<br>


<br>

<!-- |**|end egp html banner|**| -->


<div width=3D"1" style=3D"color: white; clear: both;"/>__._,_.___</div>

=20=20=20=20=20=20
=20=20

=20=20=20=20
<div id=3D"fromDMARC" style=3D"clear:both; margin-top: 10px;">
<hr style=3D"height:2px ; border-width:0; color:#E3E3E3; backgroun=
d-color:#E3E3E3;">
Posted by: &quot;Dave Wikle&quot; &lt;<wikleps2...>&gt; =
<hr style=3D"height:2px ; border-width:0; color:#E3E3E3; background-=
color:#E3E3E3;">
</div>
<!-- Start Recommendations -->
<!-- End Recommendations -->



<!-- |**|begin egp html banner|**| -->

<img src=3D"http://geo.yahoo.com/serv?s=3D97476590/grpId=3D19593555/grpsp=
Id=3D1705724874/msgId=3D8264/stime=3D1585192961" width=3D"1" height=3D"1"> =
<br>

<!-- |**|end egp html banner|**| -->

=20=20=20=20
<!-- |**|begin egp html banner|**| -->

<br>



=20=20=20
=20=20=20=20=20
=20
<!-- |**|begin egp html banner|**| -->
<div id=3D"ygrp-vital" style=3D"background-color: #f2f2f2; font-fam=
ily: Verdana; font-size: 10px; margin-bottom: 10px; padding: 10px;">

<span id=3D"vithd" style=3D"font-weight: bold; color: #333; text-tr=
ansform: uppercase; "><a href=3D"https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/wester=
n_monarchs/info;_ylc=3DX3oDMTJmcDF1Y212BF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzE5NTkzNTU1=
BGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTcyNDg3NARzZWMDdnRsBHNsawN2Z2hwBHN0aW1lAzE1ODUxOTI5NjE-" s=
tyle=3D"text-decoration: none;">Visit Your Group</a></span>

<ul style=3D"list-style-type: none; margin: 0; padding: 0; display: in=
line;">
</ul>
</div>


<div id=3D"ft" style=3D"font-family: Arial; font-size: 11px; margin-top: 5p=
x; padding: 0 2px 0 0; clear: both;">
<a href=3D"https://groups.yahoo.com/neo;_ylc=3DX3oDMTJlMTh2bHBsBF9TAzk3ND=
c2NTkwBGdycElkAzE5NTkzNTU1BGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTcyNDg3NARzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNnZnAEc=
3RpbWUDMTU4NTE5Mjk2MQ--" style=3D"float: left;"><img src=3D"https://s.yimg.=
com/ru/0.9.12/min/css/yahoo_en-US_f_pw_101x21.png" height=3D"21" width=3D"1=
01" alt=3D"Yahoo! Groups" style=3D"border: 0;"/></a>
<div style=3D"color: #747575; float: right;"> &bull; <a href=3D"https://i=
nfo.yahoo.com/privacy/us/yahoo/groups/details.html" style=3D"text-decoratio=
n: none;">Privacy</a> &bull; <a href=3D"mailto:western_monarchs-unsubscribe=
@yahoogroups.com?subject=3DUnsubscribe" style=3D"text-decoration: none;">Un=
subscribe</a> &bull; <a href=3D"https://info.yahoo.com/legal/us/yahoo/utos/=
terms/" style=3D"text-decoration: none;">Terms of Use</a> </div>
</div>

<!-- |**|end egp html banner|**| -->

</div> <!-- ygrp-msg -->

=20=20=20


<br>

<!-- |**|end egp html banner|**| -->


<div style=3D"color: white; clear: both;"/>__,_._,___</div>
</body></html>
------=_NextPart_000_0013_01D602E3.1E769D10--